Bayan hasken rana ta safe, cibiyar binciken ta yi duhu kuma ta yi sanyi. A can, a gaban babban allo, wani injiniya ya danna wani faifai don fara gabatarwar ranar ga mahalarta taron: Zuwa ga Zero Carbon, an rubuta.
Idan aka yi la'akari da zamewar, wannan ba ƙungiyar muhalli ba ce ko taron yanayi. TIME ta sami damar shiga cibiyar bincike da haɓaka sirri ta Saudi Aramco, babbar kamfanin mai na burbushin halittu wanda ya ninka irin su Exxon Mobil da Chevron. Yayin da babbar mai fitar da mai a duniya ke aiki wajen haƙo ɗanyen mai da kuma cike shi a cikin tankunan ruwa, tana bayyana aniyarta ta cimma rashin fitar da hayakin carbon nan da shekarar 2060.
Ga 'yan Saudiyya, waɗanda kashi biyu bisa uku na cikinsu ba su kai shekara 35 ba, sauyin yanayi ba matsala ce mai nisa ba. A lokacin rani, yanayin zafi mai yawa yakan kai digiri 120 na Fahrenheit. Masana kimiyyar yanayi sun ce a bara sun yi imanin cewa yanayin zafi a Gabas ta Tsakiya zai iya zama "mai yuwuwar barazana ga rayuwa" a cikin shekaru masu zuwa. "Waɗannan ƙasashe sun riga sun fuskanci matsala," in ji Ali Safar, wani mai sharhi kan yanki a Hukumar Makamashi ta Duniya da ke Paris. "Suna da matsala a cikin wasan."
Saudiyya ce ke da alhakin dumamar yanayi: Masu rajin kare muhalli sun ce Saudiyya Aramco ta samar da sama da kashi 4% na iskar gas mai gurbata muhalli a duniya tun daga shekarar 1965. A gefen Hamadar Larabawa, Saudiyya ta samar da mai mai yawa - kimanin ganga biliyan 267 na man da aka tabbatar, kimanin kashi 15% na man da ke cikinsa - tun daga shekarun 1930, lokacin da miyagun mutane a California suka kai hari kan wani bututun mai, inda suka mayar da masarautar ƙabilar zuwa babbar cibiyar mai ta duniya.
Fiye da shekaru 80 bayan haka, ikon Saudiyya a duniyar mai bai ragu ba kwata-kwata. Tana samar da kusan ganga miliyan 11 na mai a rana - kusan kashi ɗaya cikin goma na yawan man da ake samarwa a duniya - kuma tana sayar da ganga sama da miliyan 7 a kasuwannin duniya, wanda hakan ya samar da dimbin arziki ga membobin gidan sarautar da ke mulki da kuma kamfaninta mallakar gwamnati. Saudi Aramco, wacce ribarta ta karu zuwa kusan dala biliyan 110 a bara.
Duk da haka, rikicin duniya yanzu yana neman zama ruwan dare game da matsayin Saudiyya mai daraja bayan shekaru da dama na samar da riba. Kusan dukkan ƙasashe sun yi alƙawarin rage amfani da man fetur, wanda shine mafi girman tushen iskar gas a Duniya. Wannan na iya haifar da sauyin makamashi mafi ban mamaki tun lokacin da aka fara amfani da motoci sama da ƙarni da ya gabata. Tambayar da Saudiyya ke yi ita ce ko za ta iya shiga yaƙin duniya da sauyin yanayi yayin da duniyar mai ke ci gaba da kasancewa babbar ƙasa, ko kuma ko ikonta na faɗaɗa tattalin arzikinta daga dogaro da mai ya yi latti, ko kuma ta ba da hujjar cewa alkawari ne na baki. masu suka. .
Idan cacar Saudiyya ta yi nasara, za ta iya fitowa daga sauyin makamashi na duniya a matsayin cibiyar samar da mai ta duniya, yayin da take alfahari da tsabtataccen makamashi da kuma cibiyar samar da wutar lantarki mai tsafta a gida. "Suna son cin kek ɗinsu su ci shi," in ji Jim Crane, kwararre kan harkokin makamashi a Jami'ar Rice da ke Houston. "Burin Saudiyya shi ne ta zama mutum na ƙarshe da zai tsaya a kasuwar mai ta duniya."
Kasar tana da isassun kuɗi don aiwatar da manyan tsare-tsarenta. Aramco a halin yanzu ita ce kamfani na biyu mafi daraja a duniya (bayan Apple) tare da jarin kasuwa na sama da dala tiriliyan 2.3. Kamfanin ya kusan ninka ribar da ya samu a wannan shekarar yayin da farashin gidajen mai ya tashi. Arzikin mai mai yawa ya bai wa masarautar mutane miliyan 35 kacal damar yin tasiri yadda ya kamata don saita ƙa'idodi a cikin OPEC, ƙungiyar ƙasa da ƙasa ta manyan masu samar da mai 13 waɗanda za su iya yin tasiri ga kasuwannin hannayen jari na duniya.
Wannan matsayi na musamman zai daɗe tsawon shekaru da dama, musamman idan aka yi la'akari da cewa shugaban ƙasar, Yarima Mai Jiran Gado Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), yana da shekaru 37 kacal kuma yana iya mulki har tsawon tsararraki.
"Bukatar mai za ta ci gaba da ƙaruwa," in ji Ministan Makamashi na Saudiyya Yarima Abdulaziz bin Salman - ɗan'uwan MBS - yana shan shayi a ofishinsa da ke Riyadh. "A wane mataki, ban sani ba," in ji shi. "Duk wanda ya gaya maka ya san ainihin lokacin, a ina, da kuma nawa ne wataƙila rayuwa a duniyar mafarki."
A watan Fabrairun da ya gabata, MBS ya tura dala biliyan 80 daga kamfanonin mai zuwa Asusun Zuba Jari na Jiha, ko PIF, asusun arzikin ƙasar, wanda shi ne shugabansa. Kadarorin asusun sun ƙaru tun bayan barkewar cutar zuwa kimanin dala biliyan 620 yayin da suka sayi Netflix, Carnival Cruise Lines, Marriott Hotels, kamfanin kera motocin lantarki Lucid Motors da ke California da sauran hannun jari a lokacin kulle-kullen, wanda annobar ta shafa a duniya.
Waɗannan kadarorin za su iya taimakawa wajen samar da kuɗaɗen sauyi ga makamashin Saudiyya. Yadda wannan duk ke faruwa - yadda ake "sarrafa" fitar da hayakin carbon - shine damuwar da yawancin manyan injiniyoyin gwamnati na ƙasar ke da ita, in ji Abdulaziz. Wannan ƙoƙarin ya haifar da wasu sha'awa daga masu zuba jari na ƙasashen yamma, waɗanda damuwarsu game da take haƙƙin ɗan adam a Saudiyya ta saba wa ƙa'idodin kasuwanci.
A safiyar sanyin hunturu a wajen birnin Riyadh, a Cibiyar Binciken Man Fetur ta Sarki Abdullah da ke Saudiyya, wacce aka fi sani da sunanta KAPSARC, kimanin kwararru 15 sun taru don tsara dabarun TIME. Abdulaziz ya kira masu binciken "matasa da nake horarwa, ba wanda ya wuce shekaru 30 ba". Da yawa daga cikinsu mata ne kuma da yawa sun yi karatu a Amurka.
Shirye-shiryen sun haɗa da hanyar sadarwa ta tashoshin caji na motocin lantarki da kuma aikin sabunta ofisoshi da gidaje masu ƙarancin amfani da wutar lantarki - ana gina kimanin ayyukan makamashin rana da iska guda 33. Sun ce ba za a sami matsala ba wajen samar da kuɗaɗen duk wannan idan akwai umarnin sarauta. "Sarkin ya ba mu haƙƙin haɓaka dukkan gine-gine don ingancin makamashi," in ji Mudhyan al-Mudhyan na Hukumar Ayyukan Makamashi ta Ƙasa. "Muna da kuɗaɗenmu don ba da kuɗin duk ayyukanmu, don haka ba ma buƙatar zuwa banki ko wata cibiyar ba da rance."
Wataƙila babban gwajin yana faruwa ne a NEOM, birni mai darajar dala biliyan 500 na gaba da ake ginawa daga farko a arewa maso yammacin ƙasar. A ka'ida, zai zama wurin gwaji ga ra'ayoyi kamar tasi na sama da abin da ake kira kore hydrogen mai amfani da makamashin sabuntawa, wanda MBS ke alfahari da shi zai samar da mafi yawan wutar lantarki na NEOM. NEOM tana gina tashar mai mai kore ta dala biliyan 5. "Hanya ce bayyananniya daga dakunan gwaje-gwaje zuwa cibiyoyin bincike da kuma cikakken amfani da fasahar," in ji masanin ilimin ƙasa Sadad al-Husseini, wanda a da ya jagoranci sashen bincike da samarwa na Aramco kuma yanzu yana jagorantar sashen hasashen da samarwa na Husseini Energy Co., wani kamfanin ba da shawara kan bincike. a garin Dhahran na Saudiyya na Aramco. Binciken Aramco ya haɗa da ƙoƙarin kamawa da sake amfani da carbon da filayen mai na Saudiyya ke fitarwa zuwa sararin samaniya. Saudiyya ta dogara sosai kan wannan dabarar don cimma burinta na fitar da hayaki. Duk da cewa ingancinta har yanzu ana shakku a kai, Saudiyya ta fara ɗaukar carbon ta hanyar jigilar shi daga filayen iskar gas a cikin hamada zuwa masana'antu masu nisan mil 52 don a mayar da shi sinadarai masu guba.
Injiniyoyin suna kuma aiki kan hanyar jigilar hydrogen mai launin shuɗi (wanda aka ciro daga iskar gas) har zuwa Turai da Asiya. Saudi Arabia ta 2020 ta isar da jigilar ammonia mai launin shuɗi ta farko zuwa Japan don samar da wutar lantarki kuma ta sanya hannu kan yarjejeniya da Jamus don haɓaka hydrogen mai kore. Aramco kuma tana aiki kan ƙirƙirar man fetur na roba daga cakuda carbon da hydrogen da aka kama, wanda ta yi iƙirarin zai rage gurɓataccen mota da kashi 80%. Kamfanin ya ce yana shirin fara siyarwa a shekarar 2025.
Ganin cewa akwai kamfanin mai guda ɗaya kawai a Saudiyya, kuma mallakar gwamnati ce, ya ba shi damar kashe kuɗi kyauta kan bincike. "Ba za ku sami Exxon ko Chevron ko ɗaya daga cikin waɗannan kamfanonin da suka mai da hankali kan irin waɗannan abubuwa ba," in ji Husseini. "Idan ka ce, 'Yi aikin bincike wanda ba zai yi nasara ba cikin shekaru 20,' za su ce, 'Ba aikinmu ba ne.'
Da wadataccen kuɗi a hannunsu, injiniyoyin suna fatan ƙirƙirar sabbin kayan fitarwa ga ƙasar, musamman hydrogen. "Za mu iya ƙirƙirar wani kamfanin injiniya na duniya don tsara albarkatun ko masana'antun hydrocarbon na masarautar tare da bayar da wannan sabis ga duk wanda ke da sha'awa," in ji Yehia Hoxha, injiniyan lantarki wanda ya kammala karatunsa daga Jami'ar Stanford kuma darektan Sashen Makamashi na Ma'aikatar Makamashi. . A cikin ƙasar Saudi Arabia mai kore, ƙasar za ta rage yawan man fetur da take amfani da shi da kusan ganga miliyan 1 a rana, in ji shi. Sannan zai iya sayar da wannan man a kasuwar duniya kuma ya sami kusan dala miliyan 100 a rana a farashin da ake da shi a yanzu. "Ta haka ne muka nuna tattalin arzikin aikin," in ji Hoxha. Ya kira shirin ƙasar "cikakke kuma ya haɗa da dukkan mafita. Wannan ita ce hanyarmu ta share fagen mafita, ba kawai kasancewa cikin su ba," in ji shi.
Masana kimiyyar yanayi sun yi watsi da wannan hujja, suna zargin Saudiyya da "lalata muhalli" ta hanyar sanar da alƙawarinta na rage hayakin carbon yayin da take da niyyar ƙara yawan man fetur zuwa ganga miliyan 13 a rana. Rage hayakin carbon na Aramco bai haɗa da abin da ake kira Scope 3 daga amfani da mai ba, wanda masana kimiyya suka ce babban tushen iskar gas ne mai gurbata muhalli daga man fetur. "Hanyar Saudiyya ta rage hayakin ba abin dogaro ba ne," in ji wani rahoto na watan Yuli daga Carbon Tracker Initiative, wata cibiyar tuntuba ta kuɗi da ke London da New York. Wannan ba wai kawai matsala ce ta duniya ba. Saudi Arabiya mai son mai kuma wata rana za ta iya ganin raguwar kuɗaɗen shigar kamfanonin makamashinta yayin da duniya ke komawa ga makamashi mai sabuntawa. Rahoton ya ce, "Saudi Aramco tana ƙara ta'azzara maimakon rage haɗarin sauyin da take fuskanta," in ji rahoton.
Har zuwa kwanan nan, ba a yi tunanin cewa Saudiyya za ta zama jagora a duk wani jarin da za a zuba a duniya ba, balle a rage sauye-sauyen yanayi, kuma da yawa sun yi shakkar hakan. Zuba jarin ƙasashen waje ya faɗi bayan da aka kashe Jamal Khashoggi, wani ɗan jaridar Saudiyya da ke zaune a Washington, a watan Oktoban 2018 kuma jami'an Saudiyya suka yi masa yankan rago a ofishin jakadancin ƙasar da ke Istanbul, wanda ba a taɓa samun gawarsa ba.
A bara, CIA ta yanke hukuncin cewa ya kamata MBS ya ba da izinin kama ko kashe Khashoggi, ganin cewa yana da cikakken iko a kan hukumomin tsaron Saudiyya. A tsakiyar fushin duniya game da mummunan kisan gillar, shugabannin kamfanoni da jami'an ƙasashen yamma sun kauracewa shirin Future Investing na wannan shekarar, babban taron MBS mai salon Davos a Riyadh.
Duk da haka, shekaru uku bayan mutuwar Khashoggi, masu zuba jari na ƙasashen waje sun koma Saudiyya ta hanya mai girma, suna halartar taron MBS Saudi Arabia Green Initiatives a watan Oktoban da ya gabata kuma sun shagaltu da tarin yarjejeniyoyi masu yuwuwa a ɗaya daga cikin manyan tsare-tsaren makamashi a duniya. Yayin da yaƙi ya ɓarke a Ukraine, jami'an Saudiyya sun gayyaci manyan masu zuba jari a Wall Street zuwa wani baje kolin hanya a New York a farkon watan Afrilu don bayyana sabon birninsu, NEOM, wani muhimmin ɓangare na shirin kore na ƙasar.
Akwai karuwar imani tsakanin masu zuba jari da 'yan siyasa cewa yariman zai iya rayuwa fiye da kowane shugaban duniya - shi ya sa Shugaba Biden ya ziyarci Riyadh a watan Yuli har ma ya taɓa hannun Touch. "Ra'ayin cewa za ku kawar da MBS ku maye gurbinsa da majalisar dokokin Kanada abu ne mai matuƙar wayo," in ji David Rendell, wani jami'in diflomasiyyar Amurka da ya daɗe yana aiki a Riyadh kuma marubucin wani littafi game da Yarima Mai Jiran Gado. "Wani zaɓi kuma shine al-Qaeda."
An ji daɗin cewa mutuwar Khashoggi ba ta da wani tasiri a harkokin kasuwanci. "Ina tsammanin za ku iya cewa mun ci gaba," in ji Husseini, wani tsohon jami'in Aramco. "Mutane za su iya yin wani abu su ce, 'Kai, ba zan taɓa zuwa can ba,'" in ji shi. "Amma akwai tushe a duniya. Dole ne ku tallafa wa tattalin arziki."
Wannan ya bayyana daga kasuwar hannayen jari ta Saudiyya, wadda aka sani da Tadawul, wacce gwamnati ke da ita ta hanyar asusunta na dukiya mai cikakken iko. Babban jami'in gudanarwa, Khalid al-Hussan, ya yi imanin cewa kusan kashi 14 cikin 100 na hannun jarin mallakar waɗanda ba 'yan Saudiyya ba ne, waɗanda ke siyan hannun jarin ta hanyar wasu masu zuba jari na cibiyoyi 2,600 da aka yi ciniki da su a bainar jama'a. Lokacin da aka saka Tadawul a cikin jerin wasu 'yan kasuwa a watan Disamba da ya gabata, an yi ta kai hare-hare da ribar masu zuba jari na ƙasashen waje wanda ya ninka farashin tayin sau 10, in ji Hussan. "Na haɗu da masu zuba jari na ƙasashen duniya sama da 100," ya gaya mini a ranar da na nemi aiki.
Amma domin Saudiyya ta ci gaba da jawo hankalin sabbin masu zuba jari, za su ƙara buƙatar kamfanoni (aƙalla a kan takarda) waɗanda suka himmatu wajen yaƙi da sauyin yanayi. "A nan gaba, za mu ƙara fuskantar irin wannan matsin lamba a Amurka da Turai," in ji Hussan. A cewarsa, damuwa ga muhalli "zai jagoranci shawarwarin saka hannun jarinsu."
Akwai babban imani a cibiyar bincike da haɓaka haƙo mai ta Saudi Aramco da ke Dhahran cewa ba wai kawai za ta ci gaba da zama babbar kamfanin mai ba, har ma za ta faɗaɗa duk da matsalar yanayi. Injiniyoyin Aramco na Saudi Aramco sun yi imanin cewa ya kamata a mayar da hankali kan haƙo mai mai tsafta, ba wai a rage yawan haƙonsa ba.
Masu binciken kamfanin sun ce sun riga sun fara aiki da masu kera motoci (waɗanda suka ƙi ambata sunayensu) don canzawa zuwa injunan hydrogen, kamar motar Nissan mai amfani da hydrogen mai kore da aka ajiye a ƙofar gaba. Akwai ɗan gajeren tafiya daga sabuwar cibiyar leƙen asiri ta kamfanin, wacce aka yi wa lakabi da 4IR (Juyin Juya Halin Masana'antu na Huɗu). Wani nunin ya nuna Aramco tana dasa bishiyoyin mangrove kusa da babban matatar mai ta Ras Tanura a Tekun Farisa; ciyayi suna aiki azaman tsarin ɓoye carbon na halitta, suna fitar da hayaki daga iska kuma suna shaye su a cikin fadama.
Amma zuciyar ginin 4IR babban ɗakin sarrafawa ne mai zagaye, kamar ɗakin sarrafa ƙasa na NASA da ke Houston. A can, injiniyoyi suna bin diddigin wuraren bayanai biliyan 5 a ainihin lokaci tare da jiragen sama marasa matuƙa guda 60 da kuma rundunar robot, suna bin diddigin kowace digo na mai da Aramco ke fitarwa a ɗaruruwan filayen. Allo yana kewaye da ganuwar, yana nuna ɗigon jadawali da bayanai waɗanda injiniyoyin bayanai suka ce za su iya amfani da su don yin nazarin yadda za a ci gaba da samar da mai yayin da ake rage hayaki. "Duk ya shafi inganci da dorewa," in ji wani yayin da yake jagorantar ni ta tsakiya.
Ga masu rajin kare muhalli, ƙoƙarin Aramco ya zama kamar ƙarshen ƙoƙari na manyan kamfanonin mai na dakatar da motsin yanayi na duniya. "Saudi Aramco ba ta da shirin rage samar da mai da iskar gas nan da shekarar 2030," in ji ƙungiyar dokokin muhalli ta duniya ClientEarth a cikin wata sanarwa. Ta ce gwamnati "tana da dogon tarihi na yaƙi da sauyin yanayi."
Masu sharhi kan makamashi sun ce Saudiyya, waɗanda suka samar da mai arha fiye da kowa tun shekarun 1930, suna da kyakkyawan matsayi don nemo mafita ga matsalar yanayi da kuma aiwatar da ita. "Sun tara ƙwarewa da dama. Suna da kayayyakin more rayuwa na bututun mai, kayayyakin more rayuwa na tashar jiragen ruwa," in ji Safar na IEA. Yanzu haka ƙasar tana buƙatar kawo ƙarshen dogaro da kudaden shigar mai da kuma komawa ga hanyoyin samar da makamashi masu tsabta - ƙalubale mai cike da kawuna biyu, in ji Saffar. "Idan za ku iya sa su yi aiki a hanya ɗaya, za ku iya kawo canji da gaske," in ji shi. Tambayar ita ce ko sarakunan Saudiyya sun shirya don cimma hakan, ko da kuwa suna fuskantar babban riba. - Salkier Burga, Leslie Dickstein da Anisha Kohli/New York
Lokacin Saƙo: Disamba-26-2022