I muri i te kanapa o te rā o te ata, kua pōuri, kua mātao te pokapū rangahau. I reira, i mua i tētahi mata nui, ka pāwhiritia e tētahi miihini tētahi kiriata hei tīmata i te whakaaturanga o te rā ki āna tāngata i tae mai: Ki te Kore Waro, e kī ana.
E ai ki ngā kiriata, ehara tēnei i te rōpū taiao, ehara hoki i te huihuinga āhuarangi. I uru atu a TIME ki te pokapū rangahau me te whanaketanga huna o Saudi Aramco, te kamupene hinu pūmua nui e whakaiti ana i a Exxon Mobil me Chevron. Ahakoa kei te pukumahi te kamupene kaweake hinu nui rawa atu o te ao ki te pupuhi hinu mata me te whakakī ki roto i ngā anga o ngā kaipuke tāke moana, kei te whakapuaki nui ia i ōna whakaaro kia kore rawa he tukunga waro i te tau 2060.
Mō ngā tāngata o Saudi Arabia, e rua hautoru o rātou kei raro iho i te 35 tau te pakeke, ehara te huringa āhuarangi i te mea tawhiti. I te raumati, ka eke te pāmahana teitei ki te 120°F. I kī ngā kaipūtaiao āhuarangi i te tau kua hipa e whakapono ana rātou ka "tūkino pea te ora" ngā pāmahana i te Middle East i ngā tau e haere ake nei. "Kei te tūtaki kē ēnei whenua ki tētahi raruraru," te kī a Ali Safar, he kaitātari rohe i te International Energy Agency i Parī. "He kiri kei roto i te kēmu."
Ko ngā tāngata o Saudi Arabia te take o te mahana o te ao: E ai ki ngā kaitiaki taiao, neke atu i te 4% o ngā hau kati kōtuhi o te ao kua whakaputaina e Saudi Aramco mai i te tau 1965. I te taha o te Koraha Arapi, kua whakaputaina e Saudi Arabia te nui o te hinu—tata ki te 267 piriona oko o ngā rahui hinu kua whakamātauhia, tata ki te 15 ōrau o ngā rahui o te ao—mai i te tekau tau atu i 1930, i te wā i whakaekea ai e ngā tāngata whenua o California tētahi putunga hinu, ā, ka huri te kingitanga iwi hei pūngao hinu o te ao.
Neke atu i te 80 tau i muri mai, kāore i memeha te mana o Saudi Arabia i roto i te ao hinu. E 11 miriona oko hinu e whakaputaina ana i ia rā – tata ki te kotahi tekau o ngā putanga o te ao – ā, e 7 miriona oko hinu e hokona ana i ngā mākete o te ao, e whai rawa nui ana mō ngā mema o te whānau kingi me tana kamupene kāwanatanga. Ko Saudi Aramco, ko ana hua i piki ki te $110 piriona i te tau kua hipa.
Heoi, kei te tū mai tētahi raruraru ā-ao i runga i te tūranga whakahirahira o Saudi Arabia i muri i ngā tau maha o te whakaputanga hua. Kua oati tata katoa ngā whenua ki te whakaiti i tā rātou whakamahinga o ngā hinu pūmua, koinei te puna nui rawa atu o ngā hau kati kōtuhi i runga i te Ao. Tērā pea ka arahi tēnei ki te whakawhiti pūngao tino nui mai i te tīmatanga o te wā motuka neke atu i te rautau ki muri. Ko te pātai mō Saudi Arabia, mehemea ka taea e ia te uru atu ki te pakanga ā-ao ki te huringa āhuarangi i te mea kei te noho tonu te ao hinu hei mana nui, mehemea rānei kua roa rawa tōna kaha ki te whakarahi i tana ōhanga kia kaua e whakawhirinaki nui ki te hinu, mehemea rānei he kupu whakaari noa iho. ngā kaiwhakahē. .
Ki te whai hua te petipeti a Saudi Arabia, tera pea ka puta mai i te whakawhiti pūngao o te ao hei pūngao hinu pūmua tino nui o te ao, me te whakamanamana anō hoki ki te pūngao ma me te tipu hiko ma i te kāinga. "E pai ana ki a rātou te kai i tā rātou keke me te kai," te kī a Jim Crane, he tohunga tōrangapū pūngao i Te Whare Wānanga o Rice i Houston. "Ko te wawata o Saudi Arabia kia noho ko rātou te tangata whakamutunga e tu ana i te mākete hinu o te ao. ngā putunga".
He nui te moni a te whenua hei whakatinana i ana mahere nunui. Ko Aramco te tuarua o ngā kamupene tino whai rawa o te ao i tēnei wā (whai muri i a Apple) me te whakapaipai mākete neke atu i te $2.3 trillion. Tata rua te pikinga o ngā hua o te kamupene i tēnei tau i te pikinga o ngā utu o ngā teihana penehīni. Nā te nui o te taonga hinu kua hoatu he mana nui ki te kingitanga o te 35 miriona noa iho tāngata hei whakatakoto i ngā rohenga i roto i te OPEC, he kārtel o te ao o te 13 ngā kaihanga hinu nui ka taea te awe i ngā mākete hea o te ao.
Tērā pea ka mau tonu tēnei mana ahurei mō ngā tekau tau, inā koa ka whakaarohia ko te kaiārahi tūturu o te whenua, ko te Karauna Piriniha Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), e 37 noa iho ōna tau, ā, tera pea ka noho hei kingi mō ngā whakatipuranga.
"Ka piki tonu te hiahia mō te hinu," te kī a te Minita mō te Pūngao o Saudi, a Piriniha Abdulaziz bin Salman – teina o MBS – i a ia e inu tī ana i tana tari i Riyadh. "Kāore au i te mōhio ki tēhea taumata," tana kī. "Ko te tangata e kī ana ki a koe e mōhio ana ia ki te wā, ki hea, me te nui o te hinu, tera pea kei te noho ia i roto i te ao pakiwaitara."
I te Hui-tanguru kua taha ake nei, i whakawhiti a MBS i te $80 piriona mai i ngā kamupene hinu ki te State Investment Fund, te PIF rānei, te pūtea taonga motuhake o te whenua, ko ia te heamana. Kua piki ake ngā rawa o te pūtea mai i te pakarutanga ki te $620 piriona i te mea i hokona e ia a Netflix, Carnival Cruise Lines, Marriott Hotels, te kaihanga waka hiko o California, a Lucid Motors, me ētahi atu hea i te wā o te rāhui, kua tino pāngia e te mate urutā.
Ka taea e ēnei rawa te āwhina i te putea i te whakawhiti pūngao o Saudi Arabia. Ko te āhua o tēnei katoa – me pēhea te "whakahaere" i ngā tukunga waro – te āwangawanga o te tini o ngā miihini kāwanatanga matua o te whenua, e ai ki a Abdulaziz. Kua puta te hiahia o ngā kaipupuri moni o te Hauāuru ki tēnei mahi, ā, ko ō rātou āwangawanga mō ngā takahi i ngā tika tangata i Saudi Arabia e whakahē ana i ngā whakaritenga pakihi.
I tētahi ata makariri o te takurua i ngā taha o Riyadh, i te King Abdullah Petroleum Research Center i Saudi Arabia, e mōhiotia whānuitia ana ko te kupu whakarāpopototanga KAPSARC, tata ki te 15 ngā tohunga i huihui ki te whakatakoto rautaki mō TIME. I karanga a Abdulaziz i ngā kairangahau ko "aku tauira taitamariki, kāore he tangata neke atu i te 30 tau". He tokomaha o rātou he wāhine, ā, he tokomaha i kuraina i te United States.
Kei roto i ngā mahere he whatunga o ngā teihana utu waka hiko me te kaupapa whakahou i ngā tari me ngā kāinga me ngā pūnaha hiko iti te whakamahinga – tata ki te 33 ngā kaupapa pūngao rā me te hau kei te hangaia. I kī rātou kāore he raruraru ki te putea i ēnei mea katoa mēnā he mana whakahaere a te kingi. "I homai e te kingi te mana ki a mātou ki te whakapai ake i ngā whare katoa kia pai ai te whai hua o te pūngao," te kī a Mudhyan al-Mudhyan o te National Energy Services Corporation. "He pūtea ā mātou ake hei putea i ā mātou kaupapa katoa, nō reira kāore mātou e hiahia ki te haere ki tētahi peeke, ki tētahi umanga nama rānei."
Ko te whakamātautau nui rawa atu pea kei NEOM, he tāone ā-mua e $500 piriona te utu e hangaia ana mai i te tīmatanga i te raki-mā-uru o te whenua. I roto i te ariā, ka waiho hei wāhi whakamātautau mō ngā ariā pēnei i ngā waka rererangi me ngā mea e kiia nei ko te hauwai matomato e whakakahangia ana e te pūngao hou, e whakamanamana ana a MBS ka whakaputa i te nuinga o te hiko o NEOM. Kei te hanga a NEOM i tētahi tipu wahie matomato $5 piriona. "He ara mārama mai i ngā taiwhanga ki ngā pokapū rangahau me te whakatinanatanga katoa o te hangarau," te kī a te tohunga whenua a Sadad al-Husseini, i mua ko ia te tumuaki o te wehenga tūhura me te whakaputa a Aramco, ā, inaianei ko ia te tumuaki o te wehenga matapae me te whakaputa o Husseini Energy Co., he kamupene kaitohutohu tātari. i Dhahran, te kāinga o Saudi Aramco. Kei roto i ngā rangahau a Aramco ngā mahi ki te hopu me te whakamahi anō i te waro e tukuna ana e ngā mara hinu o Saudi ki te āhuarangi. He nui te whakawhirinaki o Saudi Arabia ki tēnei rautaki hei whakatutuki i āna whāinga tukunga. Ahakoa he tino ruarua tonu tōna whai huatanga, kua tīmata ngā Saudi ki te hopu waro mā te kawe mai i ngā mara hau i te koraha ki ngā wheketere e 52 maero te tawhiti hei huri hei matū hinu.
Kei te mahi hoki ngā miihini i tētahi huarahi hei kawe i te hauwai "kikorangi" (i tangohia mai i te hau māori) tae atu ki Ūropi me Āhia. I tukuna e Saudi Arabia i te tau 2020 te tukunga tuatahi o te haukini kikorangi ki Hapani mō te whakaputa hiko, ā, i hainatia he whakaaetanga me Tiamana hei whakawhanake i te hauwai matomato. Kei te mahi anō a Aramco ki te hanga wahie hangai mai i te ranunga o te waro me te hauwai kua hopukina, e kī ana ka whakaiti i te parahanga mai i te motuka toharite mā te 80%. E kī ana te kamupene kei te whakamahere ia ki te tīmata i ngā hoko i te tau 2025.
Nā te mea kotahi anake te kamupene hinu i Saudi Arabia, ā, nō te kāwanatanga te mana, ka taea e ia te whakapau moni ki ngā rangahau. "E kore koe e kite i a Exxon, i a Chevron rānei, i tētahi atu rānei o aua kamupene e aro ana ki ngā mea pērā," te kī a Husseini. "Mēnā ka mea koe, 'Mahia he kaupapa rangahau e kore e whai hua i roto i ngā tau 20,' ka mea rātou, 'Ehara tēnā i tā mātou mahi.'"
Me te nui o te moni kei te ringa, e tumanako ana ngā miihini ki te waihanga i ngā kaweake hou mō te whenua, inā koa te hauwai. "Ka taea e tātou te waihanga i tētahi kamupene miihini o te ao hei hoahoa i ngā rauemi hauwaiwai, i ngā tipu rānei o te rangatiratanga, me te tuku i tēnei ratonga ki te hunga e hiahia ana," te kī a Yehia Hoxha, he miihini hiko i puta i Te Whare Wānanga o Stanford, ā, ko ia te kaiwhakahaere o te Tari Pūngao o te Tari Pūngao. . I roto i te whenua matomato o Saudi Arabia, ka whakaitihia e te whenua tana whakamahinga wahie pūmua mā te tata ki te 1 miriona oko ia rā, e ai ki tāna. Kātahi ka taea e ia te hoko i tēnei hinu ki te mākete o te ao, ā, ka whiwhi i te tata ki te $100 miriona ia rā i ngā utu o nāianei. "Koinei te huarahi i whakaatu ai mātou i te ōhanga o te kaupapa," te kī a Hoxha. I kī ia ko te mahere a te whenua he "whānui me te whakauru i ngā otinga katoa. Koinei tā mātou huarahi ki te whakatakoto i te ara mō ngā otinga, ehara i te mea ko te noho hei wāhanga noa iho o aua otinga," tana kī.
Kua whakakorengia tēnei tautohe e ngā kaipūtaiao āhuarangi, me te whakapae i a Saudi Arabia mō te "horoi matomato" mā te whakapuaki i tana whakapau kaha ki te whakaiti i ngā tukunga waro, me te whai kia whakapiki ake i te hanga hinu ki te 13 miriona oko ia rā. Kāore te whakaiti waro a Aramco e whakauru ana i ngā tukunga e kiia nei ko te Scope 3 mai i te kai hinu, e ai ki ngā kaipūtaiao he puna nui o ngā hau kati kōtuhi mai i ngā wahie pūmua. "Kāore e pono te huarahi a Saudi Aramco ki te whakaiti i ngā tukunga," te kī a te pūrongo o Hōngongoi mai i te Carbon Tracker Initiative, he whare whakaaro pūtea kei Rānana me New York. Ehara i te mea he raruraru noa iho tēnei. Tērā pea ka kite a Saudi Arabia, he tangata aroha hinu, i te hekenga o ngā moni whiwhi a āna kamupene pūngao i tētahi rā i te mea ka neke te ao ki ngā pūngao whakahou. "Kei te whakanui ake a Saudi Aramco i ngā mōrearea whakawhiti e pā ana ki a ia, kaua ki te whakaiti," te kī a te pūrongo.
Tae noa ki ēnei wā tata nei, kāore i taea te whakaaro ko Saudi Arabia te paionia i roto i ngā haumitanga o te ao, me te whakaiti i te huringa āhuarangi, ā, he tokomaha i ruarua. I tino heke te haumitanga o tāwāhi i muri i te matenga o Jamal Khashoggi, he kairīpoata Saudi e noho ana i Washington, i te Oketopa 2018, ā, i tapatapahia e ngā āpiha Saudi i te tari kaunihera o te whenua i Istanbul, kāore anō kia kitea tōna tinana.
I te tau kua hipa, i whakatau te CIA me whakamana e MBS te hopukanga, te kōhurutanga rānei o Khashoggi, i runga i tōna "mana whakahaere tino" ki ngā ratonga haumarutanga o Saudi Arabia. I waenganui i te riri o te ao mō te kōhuru whakamataku, i whakahē ngā kaiwhakahaere umanga me ngā āpiha o te Hauāuru i te kaupapa Future Investing o taua tau, te huihuinga matua a MBS i Davos i Riyadh.
Heoi, i muri i ngā tau e toru i te matenga o Khashoggi, kua hoki nui mai ngā kaipupuri moni o tāwāhi ki Saudi Arabia, i tae atu ki te huihuinga MBS Saudi Arabia Green Initiatives i te marama o Oketopa kua taha ake nei, ā, kua kukumea rātou e te maha o ngā whakaaetanga pea i roto i tētahi o ngā kaupapa pūngao nui rawa atu o te ao. I te tīmatanga o te pakanga i Ukraine, i karangahia e ngā āpiha Saudi ngā kaipupuri moni matua o Wall Street ki tētahi whakaaturanga rori i New York i te tīmatanga o Āperira hei hura i tō rātou tāone hou, arā, ko NEOM, he wāhanga matua o te mahere matomato o te whenua.
Kei te tipu haere te whakapono i waenga i ngā kaipupuri moni me ngā kaitōrangapū ka roa ake te ora o te piriniha i te nuinga o ngā kaiārahi o te ao – koia te take i tae atu ai a Perehitini Biden ki Riyadh i te marama o Hūrae, ā, i pā atu ki te ringa o Touch. "He tino kuware te whakaaro ka whakakorea e koe te MBS ka whakakapia ki tētahi pāremata o Kanata," te kī a David Rendell, he kaitōrangapū roa nō Amerika i Riyadh, ā, he kaituhi pukapuka mō te Piriniha Karauna. "Ko tētahi atu kōwhiringa ko al-Qaeda."
I kitea te whakamarie i te mea he iti noa te pānga o te matenga o Khashoggi ki te pakihi. "Ki taku whakaaro ka taea e koe te kī kua neke whakamua tātou," te kī a Husseini, he kaiwhakahaere roa nō Aramco. "Ka taea e te tangata te tū me te kī, 'Āe, e kore rawa ahau e haere ki reira,'" tana kī. "Engari he turanga kei te ao. Me tautoko e koe te ōhanga."
E kitea ana tēnei i te mākete hea o Saudi Arabia, e mōhiotia ana ko Tadawul, e puritia ana e te kāwanatanga mā roto i tana pūtea taonga motuhake. E whakapono ana tōna tumuaki, a Khalid al-Hussan, tata ki te 14 ōrau o ngā hea kei te puritia e te hunga ehara i te hunga Saudi, e hoko ana i ngā hea mā roto i te 2,600 ngā kaipupuri moni umanga e hokohokohia ana e te iwi. I te wā i whakarārangihia ai a Tadawul i te Hakihea kua hipa, i ruia ki ngā ohaurunga mai i ngā kaipupuri moni o tāwāhi, he 10 ngā wā o te utu tuku, e ai ki a Hussan. "Neke atu i te 100 ngā kaipupuri moni o te ao kua tūtaki ahau," tana kōrero ki ahau i te rā i tono ai ahau.
Engari kia taea tonu e ngā Saudi Arabia te kukume mai i ngā kaipupuri moni hou, ka nui haere te hiahia (i runga i te pepa) ki ngā kamupene e whakapau kaha ana ki te whawhai ki te huringa āhuarangi. "I te heke mai, ka nui haere te tūtaki ki tēnei momo pēhanga i te US me Ūropi," te kī a Hussan. E ai ki a ia, ko te āwangawanga mō te taiao "ka ārahi i ā rātou whakataunga haumi."
He whakapono nui kei te pokapū R&D a Saudi Aramco i Dhahran, ehara i te mea ka noho tonu hei kamupene hinu nui, engari ka whānui haere ahakoa te raruraru āhuarangi. E whakapono ana ngā miihini o Saudi Aramco me arotahi te whakawhiti ki te pūngao ki te tango hinu ma, kaua ki te whakaiti i tana whakaputanga.
E ai ki ngā kairangahau o te kamupene kei te mahi tahi rātou me ngā kaihanga motuka (kāore i pai ki te whakahua i ō rātou ingoa) ki te huri ki ngā miihini hauwai, pērā i te Nissan sedan matomato e whakamahia ana te hauwai e tū ana i te tatau o mua. He poto noa te taraiwa ki reira ko te pokapū matauranga horihori hou a te kamupene, e kiia nei ko te 4IR (Industrial Revolution Four). Kei roto i tētahi whakaaturanga e whakaatu ana i a Aramco e whakatō ana i ngā mangrove e tata ana ki tana whare hinu nui o Ras Tanura i te Moana-a-Kiwa o Pēhia; he pūnaha pupuri waro taiao ngā otaota, e tango ana i ngā tukunga mai i te rangi, e mimiti ana i roto i ngā repo.
Engari ko te ngākau o te whare 4IR he rūma whakahaere porowhita nui, he rite ki te rūma whakahaere whenua o NASA i Houston. I reira, ka whai ngā miihini i te 5 piriona ngā tohu raraunga i te wā tūturu me te 60 ngā waka rererangi korehau me te kahui karetao, e whai ana i ia pata hinu e pupuhihia ana e Aramco i roto i ngā rau mara. Ka karapotia ngā pakitara e ngā mata, e whakaatu ana i te rerenga o ngā kauwhata me ngā raraunga e kī ana ngā miihini mōhiohio ka taea e rātou te whakamahi hei tātari me pēhea te whakaputa tonu i te hinu me te whakaiti i ngā tukunga. "Ko te mea nui ko te whai hua me te pumau," te kī a tetahi i a rātou e ārahi ana i ahau i roto i te pokapū.
Ki ngā kaitiaki taiao, ko ngā mahi a Aramco te āhua nei ko te wā whakamutunga tēnei o te ngana a ngā kamupene hinu nui ki te aukati i te kaupapa āhuarangi o te ao. "Kāore a Saudi Aramco i te whakaaro ki te whakaiti i te hanga hinu me te hau i te tau 2030," te kī a te rōpū ture taiao o te ao, a ClientEarth, i roto i tētahi kōrero. E mea ana rātou he "hītori roa tō te kāwanatanga ki te whawhai ki te huringa āhuarangi."
E ai ki ngā kaitātari pūngao, ko ngā tāngata o Saudi Arabia, he iti ake te utu o tā rātou whakaputa hinu i tētahi atu mai i te tekau tau atu i 1930, kei te pai te tūnga ki te kimi i tētahi otinga mō te raruraru āhuarangi me te whakatinana. "He nui ngā wheako me ngā pūmanawa kua kohia e rātou. He hanganga paipa, he hanganga tauranga ā rātou," te kī a Safar o te IEA. Me whakamutu e te whenua tōna whakawhirinaki nui ki ngā moni whiwhi hinu, me te neke atu ki ngā puna pūngao ma - he wero nui e rua ngā upoko, e ai ki a Saffar. "Mēnā ka taea e koe te akiaki i a rātou ki te mahi i te huarahi kotahi, ka taea e koe te hanga rerekētanga," tana kī. Ko te pātai, mēnā kei te rite ngā rangatira o Saudi Arabia ki te whai i tēnei, ahakoa te mōrearea o ngā hua nui. — Salkier Burga, Leslie Dickstein me Anisha Kohli/New York
Wā tuku: Hakihea-26-2022