Mushure mekupenya kwezuva remangwanani, nzvimbo yekutsvagisa yakasviba uye inotonhorera. Ikoko, pamberi pemonitor hombe, mainjiniya akadzvanya slide kuti atange mharidzo yezuva kune vaipinda: Towards Zero Carbon, rakanyorwa kudaro.
Tichitarisa masiraidhi, iri harisi boka rezvakatipoteredza kana musangano wezvemamiriro ekunze. TIME yakawana mukana wekupinda kunzvimbo yekutsvagisa nekugadzira zvinhu yeSaudi Aramco, kambani huru yemafuta epasi rose iri pasi peExxon Mobil neChevron. Kunyange hazvo kambani huru yekutengesa mafuta pasi rose iri kubatikana nekupomba mafuta asina kucheneswa nekuazadza muzvikepe zvegungwa, iri kutaura nenzwi guru kuti isaburitse kabhoni zvachose panosvika gore ra2060.
Kune vanhu vekuSaudi Arabia, zvikamu zviviri kubva muzvitatu zvavo vari pasi pemakore makumi matatu nemashanu, shanduko yemamiriro ekunze haisi nyaya iri kure. Muzhizha, tembiricha yakakwira inowanzosvika 120°F. Nyanzvi dzezvemamiriro ekunze dzakataura gore rapfuura kuti dzinotenda kuti tembiricha muMiddle East inogona "kutyisidzira hupenyu" mumakore anotevera. "Nyika idzi dzatotarisana nedambudziko," akadaro Ali Safar, muongorori wedunhu kuInternational Energy Agency muParis. "Hadzina hanya nazvo."
MaSaudi ndivo vane mhosva yekukwira kwemvura pasi rose: Nyanzvi dzezvakatipoteredza dzinoti Saudi Aramco yakagadzira magasi anodarika 4% epasi rose anokonzera kupisa kwepasi rose kubvira muna 1965. Pamucheto weArabian Desert, Saudi Arabia yakagadzira mafuta akawanda asingaverengeki—anenge mabhiriyoni 267 emabhera emafuta akasimbiswa, anenge 15 muzana emabhera epasi rose—kubva kuma1930, apo varwi vechisimba muCalifornia vakarwisa mafuta anoyerera, vachichinja humambo hwemadzinza kuita nzvimbo ine mafuta pasi rose.
Makore anopfuura makumi masere gare gare, kutonga kweSaudi mupasi rose remafuta hakuna kumbodzikira. Inoburitsa madhiramu emafuta anosvika mamiriyoni gumi nerimwe pazuva - chikamu chimwe chete mugumi chekugadzirwa kwenyika - uye inotengesa madhiramu anopfuura mamiriyoni manomwe pamisika yepasi rose, zvichiita kuti nhengo dzemhuri yehumambo inotonga nekambani yayo yehurumende dziwane pfuma yakawanda, Saudi Aramco, iyo purofiti yayo yakakwira kusvika pamadhora mabhiriyoni zana negumi emadhora gore rapfuura.
Zvisinei, dambudziko repasi rose rava pedyo nekuda kwenzvimbo inokosheswa yeSaudi Arabia mushure memakore ekugadzira zvinhu zvine pundutso. Nyika dzinenge dzese dzakavimbisa kuderedza kushandiswa kwemafuta epasi, ayo ari iwo manyuko makuru egasi rinopisa pasi rose. Izvi zvinogona kutungamira mukuchinja kukuru kwesimba kubvira nguva yemotokari yakatanga makore anopfuura zana apfuura. Mubvunzo weSaudi Arabia ndewekuti inogona here kubatana nekurwisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze pasi rose nepo nyika yemafuta ichiramba iri nyika ine simba guru, kana kuti kugona kwayo kusiyanisa hupfumi hwayo kubva pakuvimba zvakanyanya neoiri kwasvika nguva yapera, kana kuti neimwe nzira inozviruramisa sevimbiso yemuromo.
Kana kubhejera kweSaudi Arabia kukabatsira, kunogona kubuda mukuchinja kwesimba repasi rose senzvimbo inodiwa pasi rose yemafuta efossil, ukuwo zvichishamisa kuti ine simba rakachena uye chiteshi chemagetsi chakachena kumba. "Vanoda kuva nekeke ravo uye kuridya," akadaro Jim Crane, nyanzvi yezvemagariro emagetsi paRice University muHouston. "Chinangwa cheSaudi ndechekuva munhu wekupedzisira ari mumusika wepasi rose wemafuta."
Nyika ine mari yakakwana yekuzadzisa zvirongwa zvayo zvikuru. Pari zvino Aramco ndiyo kambani yechipiri ine kukosha kukuru pasi rose (inotevera Apple) ine mari inodarika $2.3 trillion pamusika. Kambani iyi yakada kupeta kaviri purofiti yayo gore rino sezvo mitengo yezvitoro zvemafuta yakakwira. Hupfumi hwakawanda hwemafuta hwakapa humambo hwevanhu vanosvika mamiriyoni makumi matatu nemashanu simba rakakwana rekuisa zvibvumirano mukati meOPEC, sangano repasi rose rine vagadziri vemafuta gumi nevatatu vanogona kukanganisa misika yepasi rose yemasheya.
Chinzvimbo ichi chinoshamisa chingangogara kwemakumi emakore, kunyanya tichifunga kuti mutungamiriri wenyika, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), ane makore makumi matatu nemanomwe chete ekuberekwa uye angangotonga kwezvizvarwa nezvizvarwa.
"Kudiwa kwemafuta kucharamba kuchikwira," akadaro Gurukota rezvesimba reSaudi, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman - mukoma waMBS - pamusoro petii muhofisi yake muRiyadh. "Handizivi kuti padanho ripi, handizivi," akadaro. "Chero ani zvake anokuudza kuti anoziva chaizvo kuti ari kurarama rini, kupi, uye kuti angangove ari kurarama kwenguva yakareba sei munyika yekufungidzira."
Muna Kukadzi wadarika, MBS yakaendesa mari inosvika mabhiriyoni makumi masere emadhora kubva kumakambani emafuta kuenda kuState Investment Fund, kana kuti PIF, iyo inova sachigaro wemari yenyika, iyo yaanotungamira. Mari yekambani iyi yakawedzera kubva pakatanga chirwere ichi kusvika pamabhiriyoni mazana matanhatu nemakumi maviri emadhora sezvo yakatenga Netflix, Carnival Cruise Lines, Marriott Hotels, kambani inogadzira mota dzemagetsi iri kuCalifornia, Lucid Motors nedzimwe masheya panguva yekuvharirwa kwenyika, iyo yakakanganiswa zvakanyanya nedenda iri.
Zvinhu izvi zvinogona kubatsira pakubhadhara mari yekuchinja kwesimba reSaudi Arabia. Kuti izvi zvinoitika sei - kuti "carbon emissions" inodzorwa sei - ndizvo zvinonetsa mainjiniya makuru ehurumende yenyika, akadaro Abdulaziz. Kuedza uku kwakaita kuti vamwe vanoisa mari vekuMadokero vafarire, avo vane hanya nezvekutyorwa kwekodzero dzevanhu muSaudi Arabia zvinopesana nezvinodiwa zvebhizinesi.
Mangwanani echando anotonhora kunze kweRiyadh, paKing Abdullah Petroleum Research Center muSaudi Arabia, inozivikanwa neKAPSARC, nyanzvi dzinosvika gumi neshanu dzakaungana kuti dzironge hurongwa hweTIME. Abdulaziz akadana vaongorori kuti "vadzidzi vangu vechidiki, hapana anopfuura makore makumi matatu". Vazhinji vavo vaiva vakadzi uye vazhinji vakadzidza muUnited States.
Zvirongwa izvi zvinosanganisira network yezviteshi zvekuchaja mota dzemagetsi uye chirongwa chekuvandudza mahofisi nedzimba nemagetsi anoshandiswa zvishoma - mapurojekiti angangoita makumi matatu nematatu esimba rezuva nemhepo ari kuvakwa. Vakati hapana dambudziko rekubhadhara mari yese iyi dai paine mutemo wehumambo. "Mambo akatipa kodzero yekuvandudza zvivakwa zvese kuti simba rishande zvakanaka," akadaro Mudhyan al-Mudhyan weNational Energy Services Corporation. "Tine mari yedu yekubhadhara mapurojekiti edu ese, saka hatifanirwe kuenda kubhangi kana chero sangano rinokweretesa."
Pamwe kuyedza kukuru kuri kuitika muNEOM, guta remangwana rine mabhiriyoni mazana mashanu emadhora riri kuvakwa kubva pakutanga kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumadokero kwenyika. Mukufunga, richave nzvimbo yekuyedza pfungwa dzakadai sematekisi emhepo uye inonzi green hydrogen inoshandisirwa simba rinogona kudzokororwa, iro MBS inozvirumbidza kuti richagadzira magetsi mazhinji eNEOM. NEOM iri kuvaka fekitari yemafuta akasvibirira ine mabhiriyoni mashanu emadhora. "Inzira yakajeka kubva kuma laboratories kuenda kunzvimbo dzekutsvagisa uye kushandiswa kwakazara kwetekinoroji," akadaro nyanzvi yezve geology Sadad al-Husseini, uyo aimbotungamira chikamu chekutsvaga nekugadzira cheAramco uye iye zvino anotungamira chikamu chekufanotaura nekugadzira cheHusseini Energy Co., kambani inopa mazano ekuongorora, muguta rekuDhahran kuSaudi Aramco. Tsvagiridzo yeAramco inosanganisira kuedza kubata nekushandisa zvakare kabhoni inoburitswa mumhepo. Saudi Arabia inovimba zvakanyanya nehurongwa uhwu kuti isangane nezvinangwa zvayo zveutsi. Kunyangwe kushanda kwayo kuchiri kusava nechokwadi, maSaudi vakatanga kutora kabhoni nekutakura kubva kuminda yegesi murenje kuenda kumafekitori ari kure nemakiromita makumi mashanu nemaviri kuti ishandurwe kuita petrochemicals.
Mainjiniya ari kushandawo panzira yekutakura hydrogen "yebhuruu" (inotorwa kubva mugasi rechisikigo) kunyangwe kuenda kuEurope neAsia. Saudi Arabia 2020 yakaendesa blue ammonia yekutanga kuJapan kuti igadzire magetsi uye yakasaina chibvumirano neGermany chekugadzira hydrogen yegirini. Aramco iri kushandawo pakugadzira mafuta ekugadzira kubva mumusanganiswa wekabhoni yakatorwa nehydrogen, ayo anoti achaderedza kusvibiswa kubva mumotokari ne80%. Kambani iyi inoti inoronga kutanga kutengesa muna 2025.
Kungoti kune kambani imwe chete yemafuta muSaudi Arabia, uye iri yehurumende, kunomubvumira kushandisa mari yake pakutsvaga. "Haungawani Exxon kana Chevron kana chero imwe yemakambani iwayo akatarisana nezvinhu zvakadaro," akadaro Husseini. "Kana ukati, 'Ita purojekiti yekutsvaga isingazobatsiri mumakore makumi maviri,' vaizoti, 'Harisi basa redu.'
Nemari yakawanda iripo, mainjiniya anotarisira kugadzira zvinhu zvitsva zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, kunyanya hydrogen. "Tinogona kugadzira kambani yeinjiniya yepamusoro-soro yekugadzira zviwanikwa zvehydrocarbon kana zvirimwa zveumambo uye kupa basa iri kune chero ani zvake anofarira," akadaro Yehia Hoxha, mainjiniya wemagetsi akapedza kudzidza paStanford University uye ari director weDhipatimendi reSimba reDhipatimendi reSimba reDhipatimendi reSimba. . MuSaudi Arabia ine girini, nyika ichaderedza kushandiswa kwayo kwemafuta efossil nemabara angangoita miriyoni imwe pazuva, akadaro. Anogona kutengesa mafuta aya pamusika wepasi rose uye kuwana mari inosvika mamiriyoni zana emadhora pazuva pamitengo yazvino. "Izvi ndizvo zvatakaita kuratidza hupfumi hwepurojekiti," akadaro Hoxha. Akati chirongwa chenyika "chakazara uye chinosanganisira mhinduro dzese. Iyi ndiyo nzira yedu yekugadzira nzira yemhinduro, kwete kungova chikamu chadzo," akadaro.
Nyanzvi dzezvemamiriro ekunze dzakaramba gakava iri, dzichipomera Saudi Arabia mhosva ye "kushambidza green washes" nekuzivisa kuzvipira kwayo kuderedza kuburitswa kwecarbon uku ichivavarira kuwedzera kugadzirwa kwemafuta kusvika pamabhero mamiriyoni gumi nematatu pazuva. Kuderedzwa kwecarbon kwaAramco hakusanganisiri izvo zvinonzi Scope 3 kuburitswa kwemafuta, izvo masayendisiti anoti ndiyo sosi huru yemagasi egreenhouse anobva mumafuta efossil. "Maitiro eSaudi Aramco ekuderedza kuburitswa kwecarbon haavimbike," akadaro mushumo waChikunguru kubva kuCarbon Tracker Initiative, sangano rezvemari riri muLondon neNew York. Iri harisi dambudziko repasi chete. Saudi Arabia inoda mafuta inogonawo kuona mari yemakambani ayo emagetsi ichiderera rimwe zuva sezvo nyika ichichinja kuenda kumagetsi anodzokororwa. "Saudi Aramco iri kuwedzera pane kuderedza njodzi dzekuchinja kwainotarisana nadzo," akadaro mushumo wacho.
Kusvika nguva pfupi yadarika, zvaisafungidzirika kuti Saudi Arabia yaizoonekwa senzira yekutanga mukudyara mari pasi rose, tisingatauri nezvekuderedza shanduko yemamiriro ekunze, uye zvechokwadi vazhinji vaizvipokana nazvo. Mari yekunze yakaderera mushure mekunge Jamal Khashoggi, mutori wenhau wekuSaudi anogara muWashington, aurawa muna Gumiguru 2018 ndokugurwa nhengo dzemuviri nevamiriri veSaudi pamuzinda wenyika muIstanbul, uyo mutumbi wake usina kumbobvira wawanikwa.
Gore rapera, CIA yakagumisa kuti MBS yaifanira kunge yakabvumidza kusungwa kana kupondwa kwaKhashoggi, zvichipiwa "simba rake guru" pamusoro pemasangano ekuchengetedza eSaudi. Pakati pekutsamwiswa kwenyika yose pamusoro pekupondwa kunotyisa uku, vakuru vemakambani nevakuru vekuMadokero vakaramba musangano wegore iroro weFuture Investing, wakafanana newaMBS weDavos muRiyadh.
Zvisinei, makore matatu mushure mekufa kwaKhashoggi, vanoisa mari vekunze vakadzokera kuSaudi Arabia zvakanyanya, vakapinda musangano weMBS Saudi Arabia Green Initiatives Gumiguru rapfuura uye vakanyengerwa nezvibvumirano zvakawanda zvinogona kuitika mune imwe yezvirongwa zvikuru zvemagetsi pasi rose. Hondo payakatanga muUkraine, vakuru veSaudi vakakoka vanoisa mari veWall Street vaitungamira kukuratidzira mumigwagwa muNew York kutanga kwaKubvumbi kuti vaburitse pachena guta ravo idzva, NEOM, chinhu chakakosha muhurongwa hwekuchengetedza zvirimwa hwenyika.
Pane kutenda kuri kukura pakati pevanoisa mari nevezvematongerwo enyika kuti muchinda uyu anogona kurarama kupfuura chero mutungamiriri wepasi rose - ndosaka Mutungamiri Biden akazosvika kuRiyadh muna Chikunguru ndokutobata chibhakera chaTouch. "Pfungwa yekuti uchabvisa MBS woitsiva neparamende yeCanada haina musoro," akadaro David Rendell, mumiriri weUS kwenguva refu muRiyadh uye munyori webhuku rinotaura nezveCrown Prince. "Imwe sarudzo ndeye al-Qaeda."
Paiva nemufaro unonzwisisika kuti rufu rwaKhashoggi haruna kukanganisa zvakanyanya bhizinesi. "Ndinofunga kuti unogona kutaura kuti tafambira mberi," akadaro Husseini, mukuru weAramco kwenguva refu. "Vanhu vanogona kumira vachiti, 'Aa, handimbofi ndakaenda ikoko,'" akadaro. "Asi kune nheyo dziri munyika. Unofanira kutsigira hupfumi."
Izvi zvinoonekwa kubva kumusika wemasheya weSaudi, unozivikanwa seTadawul, uyo uri wehurumende kuburikidza nehomwe yayo yehupfumi. Mukuru wayo, Khalid al-Hussan, anotenda kuti zvikamu gumi nemana kubva muzana zvemasheya ndezvevanhu vasiri vekuSaudi, avo vanotenga masheya aya kuburikidza nevaya vanoisa mari mumasangano anotengeswa pachena vanosvika zviuru zviviri nemazana matanhatu. Tadawul payakanyorwa zvishoma muna Zvita wadarika, yakazadzwa nevanoisa mari vekunze vaibhadhara mari yakawanda kagumi kupfuura mutengo wezvipo, Hussan akadaro. "Ndasangana nevanoisa mari vekunze vanodarika zana," akandiudza zuva randakanyora chikumbiro.
Asi kuti maSaudi arambe achikwezva vanoisa mari vatsva, vachawedzera kuda makambani akazvipira kurwisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze. "Munguva yemberi, tichawedzera kutarisana nekumanikidzwa kwakadai muUS neEurope," akadaro Hussan. Sekureva kwake, kunetseka nezvezvakatipoteredza "kuchatungamira sarudzo dzavo dzekudyara mari."
Pane kutenda kwakasimba panzvimbo yekuongorora nekuvandudza mafuta muSaudi Aramco muDhahran kuti haizongorambi iri kambani hombe yemafuta chete, asi ichakura pasinei nedambudziko remamiriro ekunze. Mainjiniya eSaudi Aramco anotenda kuti shanduko yekuenda kune simba inofanira kutariswa pakuchera mafuta akachena, kwete pakuderedza kugadzirwa kwawo.
Vaongorori vekambani vanoti vari kutoshanda nevagadziri vemotokari (avo vakaramba kutaura zita ravo) kuti vachinje kushandisa mainjini ehydrogen, akadai seNissan sedan yegirini inoshandisa hydrogen yakamira pamusuwo wepamberi. Chinhambwe chipfupi nemotokari kuenda kure ndicho chinzvimbo chitsva chehunyanzvi hwekugadzira, chinonzi 4IR (Industrial Revolution Four). Chimwe chiratidziro chinoratidza Aramco ichidyara mangroves pedyo nenzvimbo yayo huru yekuchenesa mafuta yeRas Tanura muPersian Gulf; zvinomera zvinoshanda senzira yekubvisa kabhoni, ichibvisa utsi kubva mumhepo uye ichihutora mumadhaka.
Asi moyo wechivako che4IR ikamuri hombe inotenderera, yakafanana nekamuri yekudzora pasi yeNASA muHouston. Ikoko, mainjiniya vanotevera mapoinzi edata mabhiriyoni mashanu munguva chaiyo nemadrone makumi matanhatu nemarobhoti akawanda, vachitevera donhwe rega rega remafuta anopombwa neAramco mumazana eminda. Mahwindo akakomberedza madziro, achiratidza rukova rwemagrafu nedata iro mainjiniya eruzivo vanoti vanogona kushandisa kuongorora kuti vangaramba sei vachigadzira mafuta uku vachideredza utsi. "Zvese ndezvekushanda zvakanaka uye kugara kwenguva refu," mumwe munhu akadaro pavakanditungamira nepakati.
Kune vanochengetedza nharaunda, kuedza kweAramco kunoita sekunge kunonoka kwekupedzisira mukuedza kwemakambani makuru emafuta kumisa kufamba kwemamiriro ekunze pasi rose. "Saudi Aramco haina hurongwa hwekudzikisa kugadzirwa kwemafuta negesi panosvika gore ra2030," boka remitemo yezvakatipoteredza repasi rose reClientEarth rakataura mumashoko aro. Rinoti hurumende "ine nhoroondo refu yekurwisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze."
Vanoongorora simba vanoti maSaudi Arabia, avo vakagadzira mafuta akachipa kupfuura vamwe vese kubvira kuma1930, vakagadzirira kuwana mhinduro yedambudziko remamiriro ekunze uye kuishandisa. "Vakaunganidza ruzivo rwakawanda uye mukana. Vane zvivakwa zvemapaipi, zvivakwa zvechiteshi," akadaro Safar weIEA. Nyika ikozvino inofanira kumisa kuvimba kwayo zvakanyanya nemari inowanikwa nemafuta uye kuenda kune masosi esimba akachena - dambudziko guru rine misoro miviri, akadaro Saffar. "Kana ukakwanisa kuvaita kuti vashande nenzira imwe chete, unogona kuita mutsauko chaiwo," akadaro. Mubvunzo ndewokuti vatongi veSaudi Arabia vakagadzirira here kuzviita, kunyangwe paine njodzi yekuwana purofiti yakakura. — Salkier Burga, Leslie Dickstein naAnisha Kohli/New York
Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-26-2022