Ngemva kokukhanya kwelanga lasekuseni, isikhungo socwaningo simnyama futhi sipholile. Lapho, phambi kwesibonisi esikhulu, unjiniyela uchofoze islayidi ukuze aqale isethulo sosuku kwababekhona: Towards Zero Carbon, kwakufundwa kanjalo.
Uma sibheka amaslayidi, leli akulona iqembu lezemvelo noma ingqungquthela yesimo sezulu. I-TIME ithole ukufinyelela esikhungweni sokucwaninga nokuthuthukiswa esivame ukuba yimfihlo saseSaudi Aramco, inkampani enkulu yamafutha ezinto eziphilayo edlula i-Exxon Mobil ne-Chevron. Ngenkathi inkampani enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni ethumela uwoyela imatasa ipompa uwoyela ongahluziwe futhi iwugcwalisa emikhumbini yamathangi olwandle, iveza ngokuzwakalayo izinhloso zayo zokufeza ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni okungekho ngo-2060.
KwabaseSaudi, okungabantu ababili kwabathathu abangaphansi kweminyaka engama-35, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu akuyona inkinga ekude. Ehlobo, amazinga okushisa aphezulu avame ukufika ku-120°F. Ososayensi besimo sezulu bathi ngonyaka odlule bakholelwa ukuthi amazinga okushisa eMpumalanga Ephakathi angaba “yingozi empilweni” eminyakeni ezayo. “La mazwe asevele ebhekene nenkinga,” kusho u-Ali Safar, umhlaziyi wesifunda e-International Energy Agency eParis. “Banesikhumba esiqinile.”
AmaSaudi asolwa ngokufudumala komhlaba: Izazi zemvelo zithi iSaudi Aramco ikhiqize amagesi angaphezu kuka-4% okushisa komhlaba kusukela ngo-1965. Onqenqemeni lwehlane lase-Arabia, iSaudi Arabia ikhiqize uwoyela omningi kakhulu—cishe amabhareli ayizigidigidi ezingu-267 emithombo kawoyela eqinisekisiwe, cishe amaphesenti angu-15 emithombo kawoyela emhlabeni—kusukela ngawo-1930, lapho izigebengu zaseCalifornia zihlasela umfula kawoyela, zaguqula umbuso wezizwe waba yindawo enamandla kawoyela emhlabeni wonke.
Eminyakeni engaphezu kwengu-80 kamuva, ukubusa kweSaudi emhlabeni kawoyela akukanciphi. Ikhiqiza cishe imiphongolo kawoyela eyizigidi eziyi-11 ngosuku – cishe ingxenye eyodwa kweziyishumi yomkhiqizo womhlaba – futhi ithengisa imiphongolo engaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-7 ezimakethe zomhlaba wonke, yenza inzuzo enkulu kumalungu omndeni wasebukhosini obusayo kanye nenkampani yayo kahulumeni, iSaudi Aramco, inzuzo yayo ekhuphuke yafinyelela cishe ku-$110 billion ngonyaka odlule.
Kodwa-ke, inkinga yomhlaba wonke manje ibhekene nesikhundla esibalulekile saseSaudi Arabia ngemuva kweminyaka eminingi yokukhiqiza inzuzo. Cishe wonke amazwe athembise ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwawo kwamafutha emvelo, okuyiwona mthombo omkhulu wamagesi okushisa umhlaba eMhlabeni. Lokhu kungaholela ekushintsheni kwamandla okukhulu kakhulu selokhu kwaqala inkathi yezimoto eminyakeni engaphezu kwekhulu edlule. Umbuzo weSaudi Arabia ukuthi ingabe ingajoyina yini impi yomhlaba wonke yokulwa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuyilapho umhlaba kawoyela usalokhu ungumbuso onamandla, noma ukuthi ikhono layo lokuhlukanisa umnotho wayo kude nokuthembela ngokweqile kumafutha lifika sekwephuzile, noma lizithethelela ngenye indlela njengesithembiso somlomo. abagxeki.
Uma ukugembula kweSaudi Arabia kuthela izithelo, kungavela ekuguqukeni kwamandla omhlaba wonke njengesikhungo samandla esibalulekile emhlabeni wonke samafutha emvelo, kuyilapho ngokumangalisayo kuveza amandla ahlanzekile kanye nesitshalo samandla esihlanzekile ekhaya. “Bathanda ukuba nekhekhe labo futhi balidle,” kusho uJim Crane, uchwepheshe wezamandla ezombusazwe eRice University eHouston. “Isifiso saseSaudi ukuba ngumuntu wokugcina omi emakethe yamafutha omhlaba wonke.
Izwe linemali eyanele yokufeza izinhlelo zalo ezinkulu. I-Aramco njengamanje iyinkampani yesibili ebaluleke kakhulu emhlabeni (ngemuva kwe-Apple) enemali engaphezu kwama-$2.3 trillion emakethe. Le nkampani icishe yaphindeka kabili inzuzo yayo kulo nyaka njengoba amanani eziteshi zikaphethiloli enyuka. Ingcebo enkulu kawoyela inikeze umbuso wabantu abayizigidi ezingu-35 kuphela ithonya elanele lokubeka ngempumelelo izabelo ngaphakathi kwe-OPEC, iqembu lamazwe ngamazwe labakhiqizi bakawoyela abayi-13 abakhulu abangathonya izimakethe zamasheya zomhlaba wonke.
Lesi simo esiyingqayizivele cishe sizohlala amashumi eminyaka, ikakhulukazi uma ubheka ukuthi umholi wezwe, iNkosana yoMqhele uMohammed bin Salman (MBS), uneminyaka engu-37 kuphela ubudala futhi kungenzeka ukuthi uzobusa izizukulwane ngezizukulwane.
“Isidingo sikawoyela sizoqhubeka nokukhula,” kusho uNgqongqoshe Wezamandla waseSaudi uNkosana u-Abdulaziz bin Salman – umfowabo ka-MBS ngomzali oyedwa – ephuza itiye ehhovisi lakhe eRiyadh. “Angazi ukuthi kuliphi izinga,” esho. “Noma ubani okutshela ukuthi uyazi ukuthi uhlala nini, kuphi, futhi kungakanani cishe ezweni lamaphupho.”
NgoFebhuwari odlule, i-MBS idlulisele u-$80 billion kusuka ezinkampanini zikawoyela yaya kwi-State Investment Fund, noma i-PIF, isikhwama semali sombuso sezwe, esiyisihlalo sayo. Izimpahla zalesi sikhwama zikhuphuke kusukela kwaqubuka ubhubhane zaya cishe ku-$620 billion njengoba sithenge iNetflix, iCarnival Cruise Lines, amahhotela aseMarriott, inkampani yezimoto zikagesi eseCalifornia iLucid Motors kanye namanye amasheya ngesikhathi sokuvalelwa, okuye kwathinteka kakhulu yilolu bhubhane.
Lezi zimpahla zingasiza ekuxhaseni uguquko lwamandla eSaudi Arabia. Ukuthi konke lokhu kwenzeka kanjani - indlela ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni "okulawulwa ngayo" - kuyinto ekhathaza onjiniyela abaningi bakahulumeni abaphezulu bezwe, kusho u-Abdulaziz. Lo mzamo udale intshisekelo ethile kubatshalizimali baseNtshonalanga, abakukhathazeka kwabo mayelana nokuhlukunyezwa kwamalungelo abantu eSaudi Arabia okuphikisana nemigomo yebhizinisi.
Ekuseni okubandayo kwasebusika emaphethelweni aseRiyadh, eKing Abdullah Petroleum Research Center eSaudi Arabia, eyaziwa kakhulu ngesifinyezo sayo i-KAPSARC, ochwepheshe ababalelwa ku-15 babuthana ukuze bahlele isu le-TIME. U-Abdulaziz wabiza abacwaningi ngokuthi “abafundi bami abasebasha, akekho ongaphezu kweminyaka engu-30”. Abaningi babo babengabesifazane futhi abaningi babefunde e-United States.
Lezi zinhlelo zifaka phakathi inethiwekhi yeziteshi zokushaja izimoto zikagesi kanye nephrojekthi yokuthuthukisa amahhovisi nezindlu ngezinhlelo zamandla asetshenziswa kancane – cishe amaphrojekthi angu-33 elanga kanye namandla omoya ayakhiwa. Bathi bekungeke kube nenkinga ngokuxhasa konke lokhu uma kukhona umyalelo wasebukhosini. “Inkosi isinike ilungelo lokuthuthukisa zonke izakhiwo ukuze sisebenzise kahle amandla,” kusho uMudhyan al-Mudhyan weNational Energy Services Corporation. “Sinezimali zethu zokuxhasa wonke amaphrojekthi ethu, ngakho-ke akudingeki siye ebhange noma kunoma yisiphi isikhungo sokuboleka imali.”
Mhlawumbe ukuhlolwa okukhulu kakhulu kwenzeka e-NEOM, idolobha lesikhathi esizayo elingamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-500 elakhiwa kusukela ekuqaleni enyakatho-ntshonalanga yezwe. Ngokombono, lizoba yindawo yokuhlola imibono efana namatekisi omoya kanye nalokho okubizwa ngokuthi i-hydrogen eluhlaza enikwa amandla avuselelekayo, okuyinto i-MBS ezigqaja ngayo ukuthi izokhiqiza iningi likagesi we-NEOM. I-NEOM yakha isitshalo sikaphethiloli esiluhlaza esingamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezi-5. “Kuyindlela ecacile kusukela emalabhorethri kuya ezikhungweni zocwaningo kanye nokusetshenziswa okugcwele kobuchwepheshe,” kusho isazi se-geology uSadad al-Husseini, owayehola isigaba sokuhlola nokukhiqiza se-Aramco futhi manje ohola isigaba sokubikezela nokukhiqiza se-Husseini Energy Co., inkampani yokubonisana ngokuhlaziya, edolobheni lase-Saudi Aramco iDhahran. Ucwaningo lwe-Aramco luhlanganisa imizamo yokubamba nokusebenzisa kabusha ikhabhoni ekhishwa amasimu kawoyela aseSaudi emkhathini. I-Saudi Arabia ithembele kakhulu kuleli cebo ukuze ihlangabezane nezinhloso zayo zokukhishwa komoya. Nakuba ukusebenza kwayo kusangabazeka kakhulu, amaSaudi aseqalile ukubamba ikhabhoni ngokuyithutha esuka emasimini kaphethiloli ehlane eya ezimbonini eziqhele ngamakhilomitha angama-52 ukuze iguqulwe ibe ngamakhemikhali kaphethiloli.
Onjiniyela basebenza futhi endleleni yokuthutha i-hydrogen “eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka” (ekhishwe kugesi yemvelo) ngisho naseYurophu nase-Asia. I-Saudi Arabia 2020 ilethe ukuthunyelwa kokuqala kwe-ammonia eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka eJapane ukuze kukhiqizwe ugesi futhi yasayina isivumelwano neJalimane sokuthuthukisa i-hydrogen eluhlaza. I-Aramco iphinde isebenze ekudaleni uphethiloli wokwenziwa ovela engxubeni ye-carbon ebanjiwe ne-hydrogen, ethi izonciphisa ukungcola okuvela emotweni evamile ngo-80%. Le nkampani ithi ihlela ukuqala ukuthengisa ngo-2025.
Iqiniso lokuthi kunenkampani eyodwa kawoyela eSaudi Arabia, futhi iphethwe nguhulumeni, limvumela ukuthi asebenzise imali ngokukhululeka ocwaningweni. “Ngeke uthole i-Exxon noma i-Chevron noma enye yalezo zinkampani igxile ezintweni ezinjalo,” kusho uHusseini. “Uma uthi, ‘Yenza iphrojekthi yocwaningo engeke iphumelele eminyakeni engama-20,’ bebezothi, ‘Akuwona umsebenzi wethu lowo.’
Njengoba benamali eningi, onjiniyela banethemba lokudala ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okusha ezweni, ikakhulukazi i-hydrogen. “Singakha inkampani yobunjiniyela esezingeni lomhlaba ukuklama izinsizakusebenza ze-hydrocarbon noma izitshalo zombuso futhi sinikeze le nsizakalo kunoma ubani onentshisekelo,” kusho uYehia Hoxha, unjiniyela kagesi owaphothula eStanford University futhi ongumqondisi woMnyango Wezamandla woMnyango Wezamandla. . E-Saudi Arabia eluhlaza, izwe lizonciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwalo kukaphethiloli ngamabhareli angaba yisigidi ngosuku, esho. Angabe esethengisa lo mafutha emakethe yomhlaba futhi athole cishe amaRandi ayizigidi eziyi-100 ngosuku ngamanani amanje. “Yile ndlela esibonise ngayo umnotho wephrojekthi,” kusho uHoxha. Ubize uhlelo lwezwe ngokuthi “lubanzi futhi luhlanganisa zonke izixazululo. Lena yindlela yethu yokuvula indlela yezixazululo, hhayi nje ukuba yingxenye yazo,” esho.
Ososayensi besimo sezulu baye bayilahla le mpikiswano, besola iSaudi Arabia “ngokuhlanzwa kwempahla eluhlaza” ngokumemezela ukuzibophezela kwayo ekunciphiseni ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ngenkathi ihlose ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela kube yimiphongolo eyizigidi ezingu-13 ngosuku. Ukunciphisa ikhabhoni kwe-Aramco akubandakanyi ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni okubizwa ngokuthi yi-Scope 3 okuvela ekusetshenzisweni kukawoyela, ososayensi abathi kuwumthombo omkhulu wamagesi okushisa ukushisa avela kumafutha angaphansi komhlaba. “Indlela yeSaudi Aramco yokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ayithembekile,” kusho umbiko kaJulayi ovela kwiCarbon Tracker Initiative, ithimba lokucabanga kwezezimali eliseLondon naseNew York. Lokhu akuyona nje inkinga yasemhlabeni. ISaudi Arabia ethanda uwoyela ingase futhi ngelinye ilanga ibone imali engenayo yezinkampani zayo zamandla yehla njengoba umhlaba ushintshela ezintweni ezivuselelekayo. “ISaudi Aramco ikhulisa kakhulu kunokuba inciphise izingozi zokuguquka ebhekene nazo,” kusho umbiko.
Kuze kube muva nje, kwakungenakucatshangwa ukuthi iSaudi Arabia ingabhekwa njengephayona kunoma yikuphi ukutshalwa kwezimali emhlabeni wonke, ingasaphathwa eyokunciphisa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu, futhi empeleni abaningi babekungabaza lokho. Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe kwehle kakhulu ngemuva kokuba uJamal Khashoggi, intatheli yaseSaudi ehlala eWashington, ebulewe ngo-Okthoba 2018 futhi waqothulwa yizithunywa zaseSaudi ehhovisi lenxusa lezwe e-Istanbul, isidumbu sakhe esingazange sitholakale.
Ngonyaka odlule, i-CIA yaphetha ngokuthi i-MBS kwakufanele igunyaze ukuboshwa noma ukubulawa kukaKhashoggi, njengoba “elawula ngokuphelele” izinsizakalo zokuphepha zaseSaudi. Phakathi kwentukuthelo yomhlaba wonke mayelana nokubulawa okubi, abaphathi bezinkampani kanye nezikhulu zaseNtshonalanga baphikisana nohlelo lwe-Future Investing lwalowo nyaka, ingqungquthela ye-MBS yesitayela saseDavos eRiyadh.
Kodwa-ke, eminyakeni emithathu ngemva kokushona kukaKhashoggi, abatshalizimali bakwamanye amazwe babuyele eSaudi Arabia ngendlela enkulu, beya engqungqutheleni ye-MBS Saudi Arabia Green Initiatives ngo-Okthoba odlule futhi bekhohliswa yizivumelwano eziningi ezingaba khona kwenye yezinhlelo zamandla ezinkulu emhlabeni. Njengoba impi iqala e-Ukraine, izikhulu zaseSaudi zimema abatshalizimali abaphambili baseWall Street embukisweni womgwaqo eNew York ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli ukuze bembule idolobha labo elisha, i-NEOM, isici esibalulekile sohlelo lwezwe lokulima.
Kukhona inkolelo ekhulayo phakathi kwabatshalizimali kanye nabezombusazwe ukuthi inkosana ingaphila isikhathi eside kunanoma yimuphi umholi womhlaba - yingakho uMengameli uBiden wagcina evakashele eRiyadh ngoJulayi waze wathinta isandla sikaTouch. "Umbono wokuthi uzosusa i-MBS bese uyishintsha ngephalamende laseCanada awunangqondo kakhulu," kusho uDavid Rendell, isazi sezombusazwe sase-US isikhathi eside eRiyadh kanye nombhali wencwadi ekhuluma ngeNkosana Yomqhele. "Okunye ukukhetha yi-al-Qaeda."
Kwakukhona impumuzo ecacile yokuthi ukufa kukaKhashoggi akubanga nomthelela omkhulu ebhizinisini. “Ngicabanga ukuthi ungasho ukuthi sesiqhubekele phambili,” kusho uHusseini, osenesikhathi eside ephethe i-Aramco. “Abantu bangashaya ukuma bese bethi, ‘O, angikaze ngiye lapho,’” esho. “Kodwa kunezisekelo emhlabeni. Kufanele usekele umnotho.”
Lokhu kusobala e-Saudi stock exchange, eyaziwa ngokuthi i-Tadawul, ephethwe uhulumeni ngesikhwama sayo semali esizimele. Isikhulu sayo esiphezulu, uKhalid al-Hussan, ukholelwa ukuthi cishe amaphesenti ayi-14 amasheya aphethwe ngabantu abangewona ama-Saudi, abathenga amasheya ngabatshalizimali abangaba ngu-2,600 abahweba esidlangalaleni. Ngesikhathi i-Tadawul ifakwa ohlwini oluyingxenye ngoDisemba odlule, yahlaselwa ngabatshalizimali bangaphandle ababephindwe kayishumi kunentengo yesiphakamiso, kusho uHussan. “Ngihlangane nabatshalizimali bamazwe ngamazwe abangaphezu kwe-100,” wangitshela ngosuku engafaka ngalo isicelo.
Kodwa ukuze amaSaudi aqhubeke nokuheha abatshalizimali abasha, azodinga kakhulu (okungenani ephepheni) izinkampani ezizimisele ukulwa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. “Esikhathini esizayo, sizobhekana kakhulu nalolu hlobo lwengcindezi e-US naseYurophu,” kusho uHussan. Ngokusho kwakhe, ukukhathazeka ngendawo ezungezile “kuzoqondisa izinqumo zabo zokutshala imali.”
Kukhona inkolelo eqinile esikhungweni se-R&D sase-Saudi Aramco eDhahran yokuthi ngeke nje sihlale siyinkampani enkulu kawoyela, kodwa sizokhula naphezu kwenkinga yesimo sezulu. Onjiniyela base-Saudi Aramco bakholelwa ukuthi ukushintshela emandleni kufanele kugxile ekukhipheni uwoyela ohlanzekile, hhayi ekunciphiseni ukukhiqizwa kwawo.
Abacwaningi benkampani bathi sebevele besebenzisana nabakhiqizi bezimoto (abangavumanga ukusho igama labo) ukushintshela ezinjinini ze-hydrogen, njenge-Nissan sedan eluhlaza esebenza nge-hydrogen epake emnyango wangaphambili. Uhambo olufushane ukusuka lapha yisikhungo esisha senkampani sobuhlakani bokwenziwa, esibizwa ngokuthi i-4IR (Industrial Revolution Four). Omunye umbukiso ubonisa i-Aramco itshala ama-mangrove eduze kwendawo yayo enkulu yokuhlanza uwoyela eRas Tanura ePersian Gulf; izitshalo zisebenza njengohlelo lwemvelo lokukhipha ikhabhoni, zikhipha ukukhishwa emoyeni futhi zimunce emaxhaphozini.
Kodwa inhliziyo yesakhiwo se-4IR yigumbi elikhulu lokulawula eliyindilinga, elifana negumbi lokulawula phansi le-NASA eHouston. Lapho, onjiniyela balandelela amaphuzu edatha ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezi-5 ngesikhathi sangempela ngama-drones angu-60 kanye neqembu lamarobhothi, belandelela wonke amaconsi kawoyela akhishwa yi-Aramco emasimini amaningi. Izikrini zizungeze izindonga, zibonisa umfudlana wamagrafu nedatha onjiniyela bolwazi abathi bangayisebenzisa ukuhlaziya indlela yokuqhubeka nokukhiqiza uwoyela ngenkathi benciphisa ukukhishwa kwegesi. “Konke kumayelana nokusebenza kahle kanye nokusimama,” kusho othile njengoba bengihola phakathi nendawo.
Kwabalondolozi bemvelo, imizamo ye-Aramco ibonakala sengathi iwukuphela kwesikhashana emzamweni wezinkampani ezinkulu zikawoyela wokumisa ukunyakaza kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni jikelele. “I-Saudi Aramco ayinazo izinhlelo zokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela negesi ngo-2030,” kusho iqembu lomhlaba wonke lezomthetho wezemvelo i-ClientEarth esitatimendeni. Lithi uhulumeni “unomlando omude wokulwa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.”
Abahlaziyi bamandla bathi amaSaudi, akhiqize uwoyela ngentengo ephansi kunanoma ubani kusukela ngawo-1930, asesimweni esihle sokuthola ikhambi lenkinga yesimo sezulu futhi alisebenzise. “Baqoqe ulwazi oluningi kanye nekhono. Banengqalasizinda yamapayipi, ingqalasizinda yechweba,” kusho iSafar ye-IEA. Izwe manje lidinga ukuqeda ukuthembela kwalo ngokweqile emalini engenayo kawoyela futhi liqhubekele emithonjeni yamandla ehlanzekile — inselele enkulu enamakhanda amabili, kusho uSaffar. “Uma ungabasebenzisa ngendlela efanayo, ungenza umehluko ngempela,” esho. Umbuzo uwukuthi ngabe ababusi baseSaudi Arabia bakulungele yini ukukwenza lokho, ngisho noma besengozini yokuthola inzuzo enkulu. — Salkier Burga, Leslie Dickstein no-Anisha Kohli/New York
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Disemba-26-2022