Pambuyo pa kuwala kwa dzuwa la m'mawa, malo ofufuzira zinthu anali amdima komanso ozizira. Pamenepo, patsogolo pa chowunikira chachikulu, injiniya adadina chithunzi kuti ayambe kuwonetsa tsikulo kwa omwe adapezekapo: Towards Zero Carbon, idalembedwa.
Poganizira zithunzi, iyi si gulu la zachilengedwe kapena msonkhano wa nyengo. TIME yapeza mwayi wopita ku malo ofufuzira ndi chitukuko omwe nthawi zambiri amakhala achinsinsi ku Saudi Aramco, kampani yayikulu yamafuta opangidwa ndi mafuta yomwe ili pafupi kwambiri ndi Exxon Mobil ndi Chevron. Ngakhale kuti kampani yayikulu kwambiri yotumiza mafuta padziko lonse lapansi ili yotanganidwa kupopera mafuta osakonzedwa ndikudzaza m'matumba a sitima zapamadzi, ikunena mokweza kuti ikufuna kuti pasakhale mpweya woipa wa carbon pofika chaka cha 2060.
Kwa anthu aku Saudi Arabia, omwe awiri mwa atatu ali ndi zaka zosakwana 35, kusintha kwa nyengo si nkhani yakutali. M'chilimwe, kutentha kwambiri nthawi zambiri kumafika madigiri 120 Fahrenheit. Asayansi a nyengo chaka chatha adati akukhulupirira kuti kutentha ku Middle East kungakhale "koopsa kwambiri" m'zaka zikubwerazi. "Mayikowa akukumana kale ndi vuto," adatero Ali Safar, katswiri wofufuza za madera ku International Energy Agency ku Paris. "Ali ndi khungu loipa."
A Saudi Arabia ndi omwe ali ndi mlandu pa kutentha kwa dziko: Akatswiri azachilengedwe amati Saudi Aramco yapanga zoposa 4% ya mpweya woipa padziko lonse lapansi kuyambira mu 1965. M'mphepete mwa chipululu cha Arabia, Saudi Arabia yapanga mafuta ambiri osawerengeka—pafupifupi migolo 267 biliyoni ya mafuta otsimikizika, pafupifupi 15 peresenti ya mafuta osungidwa padziko lonse lapansi—kuyambira m'ma 1930, pamene zigawenga ku California zinaukira chiphalaphala cha mafuta, zomwe zinasandutsa ufumu wa mafuko kukhala malo amphamvu padziko lonse lapansi a mafuta.
Patatha zaka zoposa 80, ulamuliro wa Saudi Arabia padziko lonse lapansi pa mafuta sunathe. Imapanga migolo yamafuta pafupifupi 11 miliyoni patsiku - pafupifupi gawo limodzi mwa magawo khumi a zomwe dziko lonse lapansi limapanga - ndipo imagulitsa migolo yoposa 7 miliyoni m'misika yapadziko lonse, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti anthu am'banja lachifumu lolamulira komanso kampani yake ya boma ipeze ndalama zambiri, Saudi Aramco, yomwe phindu lake linakwera kufika pa $110 biliyoni chaka chatha.
Komabe, vuto la padziko lonse lapansi tsopano likuyandikira udindo wapamwamba wa Saudi Arabia pambuyo pa zaka zambiri zopangira phindu. Pafupifupi mayiko onse alonjeza kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta, omwe ndi gwero lalikulu kwambiri la mpweya wowononga chilengedwe padziko lapansi. Izi zitha kubweretsa kusintha kwakukulu kwa mphamvu kuyambira nthawi yamagalimoto zaka zoposa zana zapitazo. Funso la Saudi Arabia ndilakuti ngati ingalowe nawo nkhondo yapadziko lonse yolimbana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo pomwe dziko la mafuta likadali lamphamvu kwambiri, kapena ngati kuthekera kwake kusiyanitsa chuma chake ndi kudalira kwambiri mafuta kumabwera mochedwa, kapena mwanjira ina kudzilungamitsa ngati lonjezo la pakamwa. otsutsa.
Ngati kutchova njuga kwa Saudi Arabia kupindula, kungachokere ku kusintha kwa mphamvu padziko lonse lapansi ngati malo ofunikira kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi opangira mafuta, pomwe modabwitsa amadzitamandira ndi mphamvu zoyera komanso malo opangira magetsi oyera kunyumba. "Amakonda kukhala ndi keke yawo ndikudya," adatero Jim Crane, katswiri wa zandale za dziko ku Rice University ku Houston. "Cholinga cha Saudi Arabia ndikukhala munthu womaliza padziko lonse lapansi pamsika wamafuta."
Dzikoli lili ndi ndalama zokwanira zogwirira ntchito mapulani ake akuluakulu. Pakadali pano Aramco ndi kampani yachiwiri yamtengo wapatali padziko lonse lapansi (pambuyo pa Apple) yokhala ndi ndalama zoposa $2.3 thililiyoni pamsika. Kampaniyo yatsala pang'ono kuwirikiza kawiri phindu lake chaka chino pamene mitengo ya malo opangira mafuta ikukwera. Chuma chachikulu cha mafuta chapatsa ufumu wa anthu 35 miliyoni okha mphamvu zokwanira zokhazikitsa magawo mkati mwa OPEC, gulu lapadziko lonse lapansi la opanga mafuta akuluakulu 13 omwe angakhudze misika yamasheya padziko lonse lapansi.
Udindo wapaderawu ukhoza kukhalapo kwa zaka zambiri, makamaka poganizira kuti mtsogoleri weniweni wa dzikolo, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), ali ndi zaka 37 zokha ndipo mwina adzalamulira kwa mibadwomibadwo.
"Kufunika kwa mafuta kudzapitirira kukwera," anatero Nduna ya Zamagetsi ya Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman - mchimwene wake wa MBS - chifukwa cha tiyi mu ofesi yake ku Riyadh. "Sindikudziwa kuti ndi pamlingo wotani," adatero. "Aliyense amene angakuuzeni kuti akudziwa nthawi yeniyeni, komwe, komanso kuchuluka kwa momwe angakhalire m'dziko la maloto."
Mu February watha, MBS idasamutsa ndalama zokwana $80 biliyoni kuchokera ku makampani amafuta kupita ku State Investment Fund, kapena PIF, thumba la chuma cha dzikolo, lomwe iye ndi mtsogoleri. Katundu wa thumbali wakwera kuyambira pomwe mliriwu unayamba kufika pa $620 biliyoni pomwe idagula Netflix, Carnival Cruise Lines, Marriott Hotels, kampani yopanga magalimoto amagetsi ku California ya Lucid Motors ndi magawo ena panthawi ya lockdown, yomwe yakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi mliriwu.
Katunduyu angathandize kulipira ndalama zosinthira mphamvu ku Saudi Arabia. Momwe zonsezi zimachitikira - momwe mpweya woipa umayendera "momwe mpweya wa carbon umayendetsedwera" - ndi nkhawa ya mainjiniya ambiri aboma mdzikolo, adatero Abdulaziz. Khama limeneli lapangitsa chidwi cha amalonda akumadzulo, omwe nkhawa zawo zokhudza kuphwanya ufulu wa anthu ku Saudi Arabia zikutsutsana ndi zofunikira pa bizinesi.
M'mawa wina wozizira kwambiri m'nyengo yozizira kunja kwa mzinda wa Riyadh, ku King Abdullah Petroleum Research Center ku Saudi Arabia, komwe kumadziwika bwino ndi dzina lake lofupikitsidwa la KAPSARC, akatswiri pafupifupi 15 adasonkhana kuti akonze njira za TIME. Abdulaziz adatcha ofufuzawo kuti "achinyamata anga omwe amaphunzira ntchito, palibe amene ali ndi zaka zoposa 30". Ambiri mwa iwo anali akazi ndipo ambiri adaphunzira ku United States.
Mapulaniwa akuphatikizapo malo ochapira magalimoto amagetsi ndi pulojekiti yokonzanso maofesi ndi nyumba zokhala ndi makina amphamvu ochepa - pafupifupi mapulojekiti 33 a mphamvu ya dzuwa ndi mphepo akumangidwa. Anati sipadzakhala vuto ndi ndalama zothandizira zonsezi ngati pangakhale lamulo lachifumu. "Mfumu inatipatsa ufulu wokonzanso nyumba zonse kuti zigwiritse ntchito mphamvu moyenera," anatero Mudhyan al-Mudhyan wa National Energy Services Corporation. "Tili ndi ndalama zathu zothandizira mapulojekiti athu onse, kotero sitifunikira kupita kubanki kapena ku bungwe lililonse lobwereketsa."
Mwina kuyesa kwakukulu kwambiri kukuchitika ku NEOM, mzinda wamtsogolo wa $500 biliyoni womwe ukumangidwa kuyambira pachiyambi kumpoto chakumadzulo kwa dzikolo. M'malingaliro, udzakhala malo oyesera malingaliro monga ma taxi amlengalenga ndi zomwe zimatchedwa hydrogen wobiriwira wogwiritsidwa ntchito ndi mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso, zomwe MBS imadzitamandira kuti zipanga magetsi ambiri a NEOM. NEOM ikumanga fakitale yamafuta obiriwira ya $5 biliyoni. "Ndi njira yomveka bwino kuyambira ku lab kupita ku malo ofufuzira komanso kugwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wonse," adatero katswiri wa za nthaka Sadad al-Husseini, yemwe kale anali mtsogoleri wa gawo lofufuza ndi kupanga la Aramco ndipo tsopano akutsogolera gawo lolosera ndi kupanga la Husseini Energy Co., kampani yolangiza yowunikira, mumzinda wa Dhahran ku Saudi Aramco. Kafukufuku wa Aramco akuphatikizapo kuyesetsa kugwira ndikugwiritsanso ntchito kaboni yomwe minda yamafuta aku Saudi imatulutsa mumlengalenga. Saudi Arabia imadalira kwambiri njira iyi kuti ikwaniritse zolinga zake zotulutsa mpweya. Ngakhale kuti kugwira ntchito kwake kukukayikirabe kwambiri, a Saudi ayamba kugwira kaboni ponyamula kuchokera kuminda yamafuta m'chipululu kupita kumafakitale omwe ali pamtunda wa makilomita 52 kuti asinthidwe kukhala mafuta.
Mainjiniya akugwiranso ntchito yonyamula hydrogen ya "buluu" (yochokera ku gasi wachilengedwe) ngakhale ku Europe ndi Asia. Saudi Arabia 2020 idatumiza ammonia yabuluu yoyamba ku Japan kuti ipange magetsi ndipo idasaina pangano ndi Germany kuti ipange hydrogen yobiriwira. Aramco ikugwiranso ntchito popanga mafuta opangidwa kuchokera ku chisakanizo cha kaboni ndi hydrogen yogwidwa, yomwe ikunena kuti ichepetsa kuipitsa kwa galimoto ndi 80%. Kampaniyo ikunena kuti ikukonzekera kuyamba kugulitsa mu 2025.
Popeza kuti pali kampani imodzi yokha yamafuta ku Saudi Arabia, ndipo ndi ya boma, zimamuthandiza kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zake momasuka pa kafukufuku. “Simudzapeza Exxon kapena Chevron kapena makampani amenewo omwe akuyang'ana kwambiri zinthu ngati zimenezo,” anatero Husseini. “Ngati mukanati, ‘Chitani kafukufuku yemwe sadzapindula pazaka 20,’ anganene kuti, ‘Si ntchito yathu imeneyo.’
Popeza ali ndi ndalama zambiri, mainjiniya akuyembekeza kupanga zinthu zatsopano zotumizira kunja kwa dzikolo, makamaka haidrojeni. "Titha kupanga kampani yapamwamba kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi yopanga zinthu za hydrocarbon kapena zomera za ufumuwo ndikupereka chithandizochi kwa aliyense amene akufuna," adatero Yehia Hoxha, mainjiniya wamagetsi yemwe adamaliza maphunziro ake ku Stanford University komanso director wa Dipatimenti ya Mphamvu ya Dipatimenti ya Mphamvu. . Mu dziko lobiriwira la Saudi Arabia, dzikolo lidzachepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta ndi migolo pafupifupi 1 miliyoni patsiku, adatero. Kenako akhoza kugulitsa mafuta awa pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi ndikupeza pafupifupi $100 miliyoni patsiku pamitengo yamakono. "Umu ndi momwe tidawonetsera zachuma cha polojekitiyi," adatero Hoxha. Adati dongosolo la dzikolo "ndi lokwanira komanso lophatikiza mayankho onse. Iyi ndi njira yathu yopezera mayankho, osati kungokhala mbali yawo," adatero.
Asayansi a zanyengo atsutsa mfundo imeneyi, akuimba mlandu Saudi Arabia kuti ndi "yotsuka zovala zobiriwira" polengeza kudzipereka kwake kuchepetsa mpweya woipa wa carbon pamene cholinga chake ndi kuwonjezera kupanga mafuta kufika pa migolo 13 miliyoni patsiku. Kuchepetsa mpweya wa carbon kwa Aramco sikuphatikizapo mpweya wotchedwa Scope 3 wochokera ku mafuta, womwe asayansi amati ndi gwero lalikulu la mpweya woipa wochokera ku mafuta opangidwa ndi zinthu zakale. "Njira ya Saudi Aramco yochepetsera mpweya woipa si yodalirika," linatero lipoti la Julayi kuchokera ku Carbon Tracker Initiative, bungwe lofufuza zachuma lomwe lili ku London ndi New York. Ili si vuto lapadziko lapansi lokha. Saudi Arabia yokonda mafuta tsiku lina ikhoza kuwonanso ndalama za makampani ake amagetsi zikutsika pamene dziko lapansi likusintha kupita ku zinthu zongowonjezwdwanso. "Saudi Aramco ikukulitsa m'malo mochepetsa zoopsa zomwe ikukumana nazo pakusintha," linatero lipotilo.
Mpaka posachedwapa, zinali zosatheka kuti Saudi Arabia ionedwe ngati mtsogoleri pa ndalama zilizonse padziko lonse lapansi, osatinso kuchepetsa kusintha kwa nyengo, ndipo ambiri ankakayikira. Ndalama zakunja zinatsika pambuyo poti Jamal Khashoggi, mtolankhani waku Saudi wokhala ku Washington, waphedwa mu Okutobala 2018 ndikudulidwa ziwalo ndi oimira Saudi ku ofesi ya kazembe wa dzikolo ku Istanbul, yemwe mtembo wake sunapezeke.
Chaka chatha, CIA inaganiza kuti MBS iyenera kuti inavomereza kumangidwa kapena kuphedwa kwa Khashoggi, chifukwa cha "ulamuliro wake wonse" pa mabungwe achitetezo aku Saudi. Pakati pa mkwiyo wapadziko lonse lapansi chifukwa cha kupha koopsa kumeneku, akuluakulu amakampani ndi akuluakulu akumadzulo adakana msonkhano wa chaka chimenecho wa Future Investing, womwe ndi msonkhano wa MBS ku Davos womwe unachitika ku Riyadh.
Komabe, patatha zaka zitatu kuchokera pamene Khashoggi anamwalira, amalonda akunja abwerera ku Saudi Arabia mokulira, akupezeka pamsonkhano wa MBS Saudi Arabia Green Initiatives mu Okutobala watha ndipo akunyengedwa ndi mapangano ambiri omwe angakhalepo mu imodzi mwa njira zazikulu kwambiri zamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi. Pamene nkhondo inayamba ku Ukraine, akuluakulu a Saudi adaitana amalonda otsogola ku Wall Street ku chiwonetsero cha pamsewu ku New York kumayambiriro kwa Epulo kuti awulule mzinda wawo watsopano, NEOM, womwe ndi gawo lofunika kwambiri pa dongosolo lobiriwira la dzikolo.
Pali chikhulupiriro chokulirapo pakati pa amalonda ndi andale kuti kalonga akhoza kukhala ndi moyo kuposa mtsogoleri aliyense padziko lonse lapansi - ndichifukwa chake Purezidenti Biden pamapeto pake adapita ku Riyadh mu Julayi ndipo adakhudzanso dzanja la Touch. "Lingaliro loti muchotsa MBS ndikuyiyika m'malo mwa nyumba yamalamulo yaku Canada ndi lopanda nzeru kwambiri," adatero David Rendell, kazembe wa US wakale ku Riyadh komanso wolemba buku lonena za Kalonga Wachifumu. "Njira ina ndi al-Qaeda."
Panali chisangalalo chomveka bwino chakuti imfa ya Khashoggi sinakhudze kwambiri bizinesi. "Ndikuganiza kuti munganene kuti tapita patsogolo," adatero Husseini, mkulu wa Aramco kwa nthawi yayitali. "Anthu amatha kuyika chithunzithunzi ndikunena kuti, 'O, sindipita kumeneko,'" adatero. "Koma pali maziko padziko lapansi. Muyenera kuthandizira chuma."
Izi zikuonekera bwino kuchokera ku msika wamasheya wa Saudi Arabia, wotchedwa Tadawul, womwe ndi wa boma kudzera mu thumba lake la chuma. Mkulu wake wamkulu, Khalid al-Hussan, akukhulupirira kuti pafupifupi 14 peresenti ya magawo ndi a anthu omwe si a ku Saudi Arabia, omwe amagula magawowa kudzera mwa anthu pafupifupi 2,600 omwe amagulitsa pagulu. Pamene Tadawul idalembedwa pang'ono mu Disembala watha, idadzaza ndi olembetsa ochokera kwa osunga ndalama akunja omwe anali ochulukirapo ka 10 kuposa mtengo woperekedwa, Hussan adatero. "Ndakumana ndi osunga ndalama oposa 100 ochokera kumayiko ena," adandiuza tsiku lomwe ndidalemba fomu yofunsira.
Koma kuti a Saudi apitirize kukopa amalonda atsopano, adzafunika kwambiri makampani (osachepera papepala) odzipereka kulimbana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo. "M'tsogolomu, tidzakumana ndi mavuto otere ku US ndi ku Europe," adatero Hussan. Malinga ndi iye, kudera nkhawa zachilengedwe "kudzawatsogolera kusankha kwawo ndalama."
Pali chikhulupiriro champhamvu ku likulu la kafukufuku ndi chitukuko la Saudi Aramco ku Dhahran kuti silidzakhala kampani yayikulu yamafuta yokha, komanso lidzakula ngakhale kuti nyengo yavuta. Mainjiniya a Saudi Aramco amakhulupirira kuti kusintha kwa mphamvu kuyenera kuyang'ana kwambiri pakutulutsa mafuta oyera, osati kuchepetsa kupanga kwake.
Ofufuza za kampaniyi akuti akugwira kale ntchito ndi opanga magalimoto (omwe sanatchule dzina lawo) kuti asinthe kukhala injini za hydrogen, monga Nissan sedan yobiriwira yoyendetsedwa ndi hydrogen yomwe yaimitsidwa pakhomo lakutsogolo. Pafupi ndi galimoto ndi malo atsopano opangira nzeru zopanga zinthu a kampaniyo, otchedwa 4IR (Industrial Revolution Four). Chiwonetsero chimodzi chikuwonetsa Aramco ikubzala mitengo ya mangrove pafupi ndi fakitale yake yayikulu yoyeretsera mafuta ku Ras Tanura ku Persian Gulf; zomera zimagwira ntchito ngati njira yachilengedwe yochotsera mpweya woipa, kutulutsa mpweya woipa kuchokera mumlengalenga ndikuwutenga m'madambo.
Koma mtima wa nyumba ya 4IR ndi chipinda chachikulu chozungulira chowongolera, chofanana ndi chipinda chowongolera pansi cha NASA ku Houston. Kumeneko, mainjiniya amatsata mfundo za data zokwana 5 biliyoni nthawi yeniyeni ndi ma drones 60 ndi gulu la maloboti, akutsatira dontho lililonse la mafuta omwe Aramco imapopa m'magawo mazana ambiri. Zowonetsera zikuzungulira makoma, zikuwonetsa mndandanda wa ma graph ndi deta zomwe mainjiniya azidziwitso amanena kuti angagwiritse ntchito kusanthula momwe angapitirizire kupanga mafuta pomwe akuchepetsa mpweya woipa. "Zonsezi ndi zokhudzana ndi magwiridwe antchito ndi kukhazikika," wina anatero pamene akunditsogolera pakati.
Kwa oteteza zachilengedwe, zoyesayesa za Aramco zikuwoneka ngati kutha kwa ntchito kwa makampani akuluakulu amafuta kuti aletse kayendetsedwe ka nyengo padziko lonse. "Saudi Aramco ilibe mapulani ochepetsa kupanga mafuta ndi gasi pofika chaka cha 2030," gulu lapadziko lonse la malamulo okhudza zachilengedwe la ClientEarth linatero m'mawu ake. Likuti boma "lili ndi mbiri yayitali yolimbana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo."
Akatswiri a zamagetsi akuti a Saudi Arabia, omwe apanga mafuta otsika mtengo kuposa wina aliyense kuyambira m'ma 1930, ali pamalo abwino opezera yankho la vuto la nyengo ndikuligwiritsa ntchito. "Apeza chidziwitso chambiri komanso kuthekera. Ali ndi zomangamanga za mapaipi, zomangamanga za doko," adatero Safar wa IEA. Dzikoli tsopano liyenera kuthetsa kudalira kwambiri ndalama zomwe amapeza pamafuta ndikupita ku magwero amagetsi oyera - vuto lalikulu la mitu iwiri, adatero Saffar. "Ngati mungathe kuwapangitsa kuti agwire ntchito mofanana, mutha kusintha kwambiri," adatero. Funso ndilakuti kodi olamulira a Saudi Arabia ali okonzeka kuchita izi, ngakhale pangozi yopeza phindu lalikulu. - Salkier Burga, Leslie Dickstein ndi Anisha Kohli/New York
Nthawi yotumizira: Disembala-26-2022