Nyuma y'izuba rya mu gitondo, ikigo cy'ubushakashatsi cyari cyijimye kandi gikonje. Aho ngaho, imbere y'icyuma kinini gipima amashusho, injeniyeri yakandagiye kuri slide kugira ngo atangire ikiganiro cy'umunsi ku bari aho: Kugana kuri Zero Carbon, byanditseho.
Ukurikije amashusho, iri si itsinda ry’ibidukikije cyangwa inama y’ikirere. TIME yabonye uburenganzira bwo kugera ku kigo gisanzwe cy’ubushakashatsi n’iterambere rya Saudi Aramco, ikigo gikomeye gicuruza ibikomoka kuri peteroli kiruta ibindi nka Exxon Mobil na Chevron. Nubwo ikigo kinini cyohereza peteroli ku isi gihugiye mu gusuka peteroli no kuyuzuza mu bwato bw’amato, kirimo kuvuga cyane ku ntego zacyo zo kutazasohora imyuka ihumanya ikirere bitarenze umwaka wa 2060.
Ku Banya-Saudi, babiri muri batatu bari munsi y'imyaka 35, imihindagurikire y'ikirere si ikibazo kiri kure. Mu mpeshyi, ubushyuhe bwinshi bukunze kugera kuri dogere 120. Abahanga mu by'ikirere bavuze umwaka ushize ko bizera ko ubushyuhe mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati bushobora "gushobora gushyira ubuzima mu kaga" mu myaka iri imbere. Ali Safar, inzobere mu isesengura ry'akarere mu Kigo Mpuzamahanga gishinzwe Ingufu i Paris, yagize ati: "Ibi bihugu byamaze guhura n'ikibazo."
Abanya-Saudi nibo bafite uruhare mu ihindagurika ry’ikirere: Abahanga mu bidukikije bavuga ko Saudi Aramco yakoze ibirenga 4% by’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere ku isi kuva mu 1965. Ku nkengero z’ubutayu bwa Arabiya, Arabiya Sawudite yakoze peteroli itagira ingano—hafi miliyari 267 z’ibigega bya peteroli byagaragaye ko biri mu bubiko bw’ibigega, hafi 15% by’ibigega by’isi—kuva mu myaka ya 1930, ubwo abagome bo muri Kaliforuniya bateraga ikigega cy’ibigega bya peteroli, bigatuma ubwami bw’ubwoko buhinduka igihugu gikomeye ku isi.
Nyuma y'imyaka irenga 80, ubutegetsi bwa Saudi Arabia ku isi ya peteroli ntiburagabanuka cyane. Ikora utubari miliyoni 11 twa peteroli ku munsi - hafi kimwe cya cumi cy'umusaruro w'isi - kandi igurisha utubari turenga miliyoni 7 ku masoko mpuzamahanga, binjiza umutungo mwinshi ku bagize umuryango w'ibwami uri ku butegetsi n'ikigo cyayo cya leta. Saudi Arabian Aramco, inyungu yayo yazamutse igera kuri miliyari 110 z'amadolari umwaka ushize.
Ariko, ikibazo cy’isi yose kiri kugaragara ku mwanya ukomeye wa Arabiya Sawudite nyuma y’imyaka myinshi y’umusaruro wunguka. Hafi ya Ibihugu byose byiyemeje kugabanya ikoreshwa ryabyo rya lisansi, ari na yo soko nini cyane y’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere ku Isi. Ibi bishobora gutuma habaho impinduka zikomeye cyane mu ngufu kuva igihe cy’imodoka cyatangira mu myaka irenga ijana ishize. Ikibazo kuri Arabiya Sawudite ni ukumenya niba ishobora kwifatanya n’isi mu rugamba rwo kurwanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere mu gihe isi ya peteroli ikiri igihugu cy’igihangange, cyangwa niba ubushobozi bwayo bwo gukwirakwiza ubukungu bwayo kurenza urugero mu kwishingikiriza kuri peteroli butinze cyane, cyangwa niba ikwiye kwitwa isezerano ry’amagambo.
Niba umukino wa Arabiya Sawudite utanga umusaruro, ushobora kuva mu mpinduka ku isi mu bijyanye n'ingufu nk'ikigo cy'ingenzi ku isi mu bijyanye na lisansi, mu gihe gitangaje gifite ingufu zisukuye n'uruganda rw'amashanyarazi rusukuye mu gihugu. Jim Crane, impuguke mu by'ingufu muri Kaminuza ya Rice i Houston, yagize ati: "Bakunda kurya umugati wabo no kuwurya." "Icyifuzo cya Arabiya Sawudite ni ukuba umuntu wa nyuma ku isoko ry'ibikomoka kuri peteroli ku isi."
Igihugu gifite amafaranga ahagije yo gushyira mu bikorwa gahunda zacyo zikomeye. Aramco ubu ni yo sosiyete ya kabiri ifite agaciro ku isi (nyuma ya Apple) ifite imari irenga tiriyari 2.3 z'amadolari. Iyi sosiyete hafi kabiri inyungu zayo muri uyu mwaka ubwo ibiciro bya sitasiyo za lisansi byazamukaga. Ubukungu bwinshi bwa peteroli bwahaye ubwami bw'abantu miliyoni 35 gusa ububasha buhagije bwo gushyiraho neza imigabane muri OPEC, ikigo mpuzamahanga cy'abakora peteroli 13 bakomeye bashobora kugira ingaruka ku masoko y'imigabane ku isi.
Iyi myanya idasanzwe ishobora kumara imyaka ibarirwa muri za mirongo, cyane cyane ko umuyobozi w’igihugu, Igikomangoma Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), afite imyaka 37 gusa kandi ashobora kuzategeka imyaka myinshi.
“Ubusabe bwa peteroli buzakomeza kwiyongera,” ibi byavuzwe na Minisitiri w’Ingufu wa Arabiya Sawudite, Igikomangoma Abdulaziz bin Salman – murumuna wa MBS – mu biro bye i Riyadh. Yagize ati: “Ku rwego rungana iki, sinzi.” “Umuntu wese uzakubwira ko azi neza igihe, aho, n’ingano y’ubuzima ashobora kuba ari mu isi y’inzozi.”
Muri Gashyantare ushize, MBS yohereje miliyari 80 z'amadolari mu bigo bitanga peteroli ijya mu kigega cy'ishoramari cya Leta, cyangwa PIF, ikigega cy'ubukungu bw'igihugu, ari na cyo ayoboye. Umutungo w'iki kigega wazamutse kuva icyo cyorezo cyatangira kugera kuri miliyari 620 z'amadolari ubwo cyaguraga Netflix, Carnival Cruise Lines, Marriott Hotels, isosiyete ikora imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi ikorera muri California yitwa Lucid Motors n'indi migabane mu gihe cyo gufunga imiryango, cyahungabanyijwe cyane n'icyorezo.
Iyi mitungo ishobora gufasha gutera inkunga ihindagurika ry’ingufu muri Arabiya Sawudite. Uburyo ibi byose bibaho - uburyo imyuka ihumanya ikirere "igenzurwa" - ni impungenge z'abahanga benshi ba leta bakomeye, nk'uko Abdulaziz yabitangaje. Iyi mbaraga yakuruye abashoramari bo mu bihugu by'iburengerazuba, impungenge zabo ku ihohoterwa ry'uburenganzira bwa muntu muri Arabiya Sawudite zinyuranyije n'amategeko agenga ubucuruzi.
Mu gitondo cy'ubukonje bwinshi mu nkengero za Riyadh, mu kigo cy'ubushakashatsi cya peteroli cya King Abdullah muri Arabiya Sawudite, kizwi cyane ku izina rya KAPSARC, impuguke zigera kuri 15 zateraniye hamwe kugira ngo zitegure ingamba za TIME. Abdulaziz yise abashakashatsi "abanyeshuri banjye bato bakora umwuga, nta muntu urengeje imyaka 30". Benshi muri bo bari abagore kandi benshi bize muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika.
Gahunda zirimo urusobe rw'ibigo bitanga amashanyarazi ku modoka n'umushinga wo kuvugurura ibiro n'amazu bifite amashanyarazi make - imishinga igera kuri 33 y'ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba n'umuyaga irimo kubakwa. Bavuze ko nta kibazo cyaba kiri mu gutera inkunga ibi byose iyo haba hari itegeko ry'umwami. Mudhyan al-Mudhyan wo mu Kigo cy'Igihugu gishinzwe Ingufu yagize ati: "Umwami yaduhaye uburenganzira bwo kuvugurura inyubako zose kugira ngo ingufu zikore neza." Yagize ati: "Dufite amafaranga yacu bwite yo gutera inkunga imishinga yacu yose, bityo ntabwo dukeneye kujya muri banki cyangwa ikigo icyo ari cyo cyose gitanga inguzanyo."
Ahari igerageza rikomeye riri kubera muri NEOM, umujyi w’ejo hazaza ufite agaciro ka miliyari 500 z’amadolari uri kubakwa kuva ku ntangiriro mu majyaruguru y’uburengerazuba bw’igihugu. Mu buryo bw’imitekerereze, uzaba ahantu ho gupimira ibitekerezo nka tagisi z’indege n’icyo bita hydrogen y’icyatsi kibisi ikoreshwa n’ingufu zishobora kongera gukoreshwa, MBS yirata ko izatanga amashanyarazi menshi ya NEOM. NEOM irimo kubaka uruganda rwa lisansi rukoresha miliyari 5 z’amadolari. Inzobere mu by’ubutaka Sadad al-Husseini, wahoze ayobora ishami rya Aramco rishinzwe ubushakashatsi n’umusaruro, ubu akaba ayoboye ishami rishinzwe iteganyagihe n’umusaruro rya Husseini Energy Co., ikigo cy’ubujyanama mu by’isesengura, mu mujyi wa Dhahran, aho Aramco ituye muri Sawudite. Ubushakashatsi bwa Aramco burimo imbaraga zo gufata no gukoresha karubone iva mu bisigazwa bya peteroli byo muri Sawudite irekura mu kirere. Arabiya Sawudite yishingikiriza cyane kuri iyi ngamba kugira ngo igere ku ntego zayo zo gusohora imyuka ihumanya ikirere. Nubwo ubushobozi bwayo bugiteye amakenga cyane, Abanyasawudite batangiye gufata karubone bayitwara bayikuye mu bisigazwa bya gaze mu butayu bayijyana mu nganda ziri mu birometero 82 kugira ngo ihindurwemo ibisigazwa bya peteroli.
Abahanga mu by’ubwubatsi barimo gukora ku buryo bwo gutwara hydrogen “y’ubururu” (ikurwa muri gaze karemano) ndetse no mu Burayi no muri Aziya. Arabiya Sawudite 2020 yagejeje ku Buyapani ibicuruzwa bya mbere bya ammonia y’ubururu kugira ngo bikoreshwe amashanyarazi ndetse inasinya amasezerano n’Ubudage yo gukora hydrogen y’icyatsi kibisi. Aramco irimo kandi gukora ibikomoka kuri peteroli biva mu ruvange rwa karuboni na hydrogen byafashwe, ivuga ko bizagabanya umwanda uva mu modoka isanzwe ku kigero cya 80%. Iyi sosiyete ivuga ko iteganya gutangira kugurisha muri 2025.
Kuba hari ikigo kimwe gusa cya peteroli muri Arabiya Sawudite, kandi kikaba ari icya leta, bimufasha gukoresha amafaranga mu bushakashatsi ku buntu. Husseini yagize ati: “Ntabwo uzasanga Exxon cyangwa Chevron cyangwa ikindi kigo icyo ari cyo cyose muri ibyo cyibanda ku bintu nk’ibyo. Iyo uvuze uti, ‘Kora umushinga w’ubushakashatsi utazagira icyo ugeraho mu myaka 20 iri imbere,’ baravuga bati, ‘Ayo si akazi kacu.’
Kubera amafaranga menshi bafite, aba bahanga bizeye ko bazakora ibicuruzwa bishya byoherezwa mu mahanga mu gihugu, cyane cyane hydrogen. Yehia Hoxha, injeniyeri w’amashanyarazi warangije muri Kaminuza ya Stanford akaba n’umuyobozi w’ishami ry’ingufu mu ishami ry’ingufu mu ishami ry’ingufu, yagize ati: “Dushobora gushinga ikigo cy’ingufu cyo ku rwego rw’isi kugira ngo gishushanye umutungo kamere w’ingufu za hydrocarbon cyangwa inganda z’ubwami, kandi dutange iyi serivisi ku muntu wese ubyifuza.” Mu gihugu cya Arabiya Sawudite kibisi, igihugu kizagabanya ikoreshwa rya lisansi ku bisigazwa byacyo ku ngano ya miliyoni imwe ku munsi, nk’uko yabitangaje. Hanyuma ashobora kugurisha iyi peteroli ku isoko ry’isi maze akinjiza miliyoni 100 z’amadolari ku munsi ku biciro biriho ubu. Hoxha yagize ati: “Uku ni ko twagaragaje ubukungu bw’umushinga. Yavuze ko gahunda y’igihugu “irambuye kandi ikubiyemo ibisubizo byose. Ubu ni bwo buryo bwacu bwo gushakira ibisubizo inzira, atari ukuba umwe muri byo gusa.”
Abahanga mu by’ikirere banze iyi ngingo, bashinja Arabiya Sawudite "gusukura imyuka mibi ihumanya ikirere" batangaza ko biyemeje kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere mu gihe bagamije kongera umusaruro wa peteroli ukagera kuri barrel miliyoni 13 ku munsi. Kugabanya karuboni kwa Aramco ntibikubiyemo imyuka ihumanya ikirere yitwa Scope 3 ituruka ku ikoreshwa rya peteroli, abahanga bavuga ko ari isoko ikomeye y’imyuka ihumanya ikirere ituruka kuri peteroli. Raporo yo muri Nyakanga yavuye muri Carbon Tracker Initiative, ikigo cy’imari gifite icyicaro i Londres na New York, yagize iti: "Uburyo bwa Saudi Aramco bwo kugabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere ntabwo bwemewe." Iki si ikibazo cy’isi gusa. Arabiya Sawudite ikunda peteroli ishobora no kubona amafaranga yinjira mu bigo byayo by’ingufu agabanuka cyane mu gihe isi ihinduka ijya ku bicuruzwa bishobora kongera gukoreshwa. Raporo yagize iti: "Saudi Aramco irimo kongera imbaraga aho kugabanya ibyago by’impinduka ihura nabyo."
Kugeza vuba aha, ntibyari byitezwe ko Arabiya Sawudite yafatwa nk'imbara mu ishoramari iryo ari ryo ryose ku isi, ndetse no mu kugabanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere, kandi koko benshi barashidikanyaga. Ishoramari ry'amahanga ryagabanutse nyuma y'uko Jamal Khashoggi, umunyamakuru wo muri Arabiya Sawudite utuye i Washington, yishwe mu Ukwakira 2018 agacibwa ibice by'umubiri n'abakozi ba Arabiya Sawudite bo muri konsulat y'igihugu i Istanbul, umurambo we utigeze uboneka.
Umwaka ushize, CIA yanzuye ko MBS yagombaga gutanga uburenganzira bwo guta muri yombi cyangwa kwicwa kwa Khashoggi, bitewe n'uko yari afite "ububasha busesuye" ku nzego z'umutekano za Arabiya Sawudite. Mu gihe isi yose yari irakajwe n'ubwicanyi buteye ubwoba, abayobozi b'ibigo n'abayobozi b'ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba bw'isi banze inama y'uyu mwaka ya Future Investing, nk'iya MBS yabereye i Riyadh, mu buryo bwa Davos.
Ariko, nyuma y'imyaka itatu Khashoggi apfuye, abashoramari b'abanyamahanga bagarutse muri Arabiya Sawudite mu buryo bukomeye, bitabiriye inama ya MBS Saudi Arabia Green Initiatives mu Kwakira gushize kandi bashukwa n'amasezerano menshi ashobora kuba muri imwe muri gahunda nini z'ingufu ku isi. Ubwo intambara yatangiraga muri Ukraine, abayobozi ba Sawudite batumiye abashoramari bakomeye ba Wall Street mu imurikagurisha ry'umuhanda i New York mu ntangiriro za Mata kugira ngo bamurike umujyi wabo mushya, NEOM, igice cy'ingenzi cya gahunda y'igihugu yo kubungabunga ibidukikije.
Hari icyizere gikomeje kwiyongera mu bashoramari n'abanyapolitiki ko igikomangoma gishobora kubaho kurusha umuyobozi uwo ari we wese ku isi - niyo mpamvu Perezida Biden yaje gusura Riyadh muri Nyakanga ndetse akanakora ku kiganza cya Touch. David Rendell, umudipolomate w'Amerika umaze igihe kinini muri Riyadh akaba n'umwanditsi w'igitabo kivuga ku gikomangoma, yagize ati: "Igitekerezo cy'uko ugiye gukuraho MBS ukayisimbuza inteko ishinga amategeko ya Kanada ni ubuswa cyane."
Hari ihumure rigaragara ko urupfu rwa Khashoggi nta ngaruka rufite ku bucuruzi. Husseini, umuyobozi wa Aramco umaze igihe kinini ayoboye, yagize ati: “Ndatekereza ko ushobora kuvuga ko twateye imbere.” Yagize ati: “Abantu bashobora kwihagararaho bakavuga bati 'Oh, ntabwo nzigera njyayo.' Ariko hari ishingiro ku isi. Ugomba gushyigikira ubukungu.”
Ibi bigaragara mu isoko ry’imigabane rya Sawudite, rizwi ku izina rya Tadawul, rifitwe na leta binyuze mu kigega cyayo cy’ubukungu. Umuyobozi mukuru waryo, Khalid al-Hussan, yizera ko hafi 14% by’imigabane ari iy’abatari Abasawudite, bagura iyo migabane binyuze mu bashoramari bagera ku 2.600 bagurishwa ku mugaragaro. Ubwo Tadawul yashyirwaga ku rutonde rw’abashoramari b’abanyamahanga mu Ukuboza gushize, yahuye n’abashoramari b’abanyamahanga bakubye inshuro 10 igiciro cy’itangwa, nk’uko Hussan yabitangaje umunsi nasabye. “Nahuye n’abashoramari mpuzamahanga barenga 100,” yambwiye umunsi nasabye.
Ariko kugira ngo Abanya-Saudi bakomeze gukurura abashoramari bashya, bazakenera cyane (nibura mu mpapuro) amasosiyete yiyemeje kurwanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Hussan yagize ati: “Mu gihe kizaza, tuzarushaho guhura n’iki gitutu muri Amerika no mu Burayi.” Nk’uko abivuga, kwita ku bidukikije “bizayobora ibyemezo byabo by’ishoramari.”
Hari icyizere gikomeye mu kigo cy’ubushakashatsi n’iterambere cya Saudi Aramco kiri i Dhahran ko kitazakomeza kuba ikigo kinini cya peteroli gusa, ahubwo ko kizanaguka nubwo hari ikibazo cy’ikirere. Injeniyeri za Saudi Aramco zizera ko impinduka mu bijyanye n’ingufu zigomba kwibanda ku gucukura peteroli isukuye, aho kugabanya umusaruro wayo.
Abashakashatsi b’iyi sosiyete bavuga ko basanzwe bakorana n’abakora imodoka (banze kuvuga amazina yabo) kugira ngo bahindukire bakoreshe moteri za hydrogen, nka Nissan sedan y’icyatsi kibisi ikoresha hydrogen iparitse ku muryango w’imbere. Uvuye aho ujya ni hafi y’aho ikigo gishya cy’ubutasi bw’ubukorano, cyitwa 4IR (Inganda Revolution Four). Imurikagurisha rimwe rigaragaza Aramco itera imikungugu hafi y’uruganda rwayo runini rwo gutunganya peteroli rwa Ras Tanura mu kigobe cya Perse; ibimera bikora nk'uburyo karemano bwo gukusanya karubone, bikura imyuka ihumanya ikirere kandi bikayinjiza mu bishanga.
Ariko umutima w'inyubako ya 4IR ni icyumba kinini cy'uruziga cy'ubugenzuzi, nk'icyumba cy'ubugenzuzi bw'ubutaka cya NASA kiri i Houston. Aho ngaho, injeniyeri zikurikirana amakuru agera kuri miliyari 5 mu gihe nyacyo hamwe n'indege 60 zitagira abapilote n'amarobo menshi, zikurikirana buri gitonyanga cya peteroli ivanwa na Aramco mu bibanza amagana. Hari amashusho akikiye inkuta, agaragaza urutonde rw'amashusho n'amakuru injeniyeri z'amakuru zivuga ko zishobora gukoresha mu gusesengura uburyo bwo gukomeza gukora peteroli mu gihe zigabanya imyuka ihumanya ikirere. Hari umuntu wavuze ubwo yanyoboraga mu gice cyo hagati.
Ku baharanira ibidukikije, imbaraga za Aramco zisa n'aho ari zo za nyuma mu gikorwa cy'amasosiyete akomeye acuruza peteroli cyo guhagarika urujya n'uruza rw'ikirere ku isi. “Saudi Aramco nta gahunda ifite yo kugabanya umusaruro wa peteroli na gazi bitarenze 2030,” nk'uko byatangajwe n'itsinda mpuzamahanga rishinzwe amategeko agenga ibidukikije ClientEarth. Rivuga ko guverinoma “ifite amateka maremare yo kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere.”
Abasesenguzi b'ingufu bavuga ko Abanya-Saudi, bakoze peteroli ihendutse kurusha abandi bose kuva mu myaka ya 1930, bafite umwanya mwiza wo gushaka igisubizo cy'ikibazo cy'ikirere no kugishyira mu bikorwa. “Bakusanyije ubunararibonye bwinshi n'ubushobozi. Bafite ibikorwa remezo by'imiyoboro y'amazi, ibikorwa remezo by'icyambu,” ibi byavuzwe na Safar wo muri IEA. Ubu igihugu gikeneye guhagarika kwishingikiriza cyane ku mafaranga yinjira muri peteroli no kwerekeza ku masoko y'ingufu zisukuye - ikibazo gikomeye gifite impande ebyiri, nk'uko Saffar yabitangaje. Yagize ati: “Niba ushobora kubafasha gukorera mu cyerekezo kimwe, mushobora kugira icyo mugeraho.” Ikibazo ni ukumenya niba abategetsi ba Arabiya Arabiya Arabiya biteguye kubikora, nubwo byaba ari mu kaga ko kubona inyungu nyinshi. — Salkier Burga, Leslie Dickstein na Anisha Kohli / New York
Igihe cyo kohereza: Ukuboza-26-2022