Russia will cut pipeline gas and lng exports by 40% in the next three years

It is reported that according to Russia’s three-year plan draft, the annual export of pipeline natural gas and LNG will drop by nearly 40% to 125.2 billion cubic meters in 2023-2025. The draft shows that the export of pipeline natural gas is expected to be 142 billion cubic meters this year and 205.6 billion cubic meters in 2021. These figures highlight the serious challenges facing European energy consumers.
After Russia was sanctioned by western countries due to the Russian Ukrainian conflict, Gazprom (Gazprom) has been reducing its natural gas supply to Europe for several months. Europe has always been Russia’s largest market. Some European customers were cut off from gas supply after they refused to pay in rubles as required by Russia. Russia also reduced the flow of natural gas transported to Europe through major pipelines for technical reasons.
The draft plan did not provide detailed data on export markets. However, according to historical data and current supply, Türkiye may become the largest single customer of Gazprom in the European continent. Last year, Russia exported nearly 27 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Türkiye.
Next year, China may become the second largest buyer of Russian pipeline natural gas. According to the agreement between Russia Gas and PetroChina, the supply of natural gas through the “Power of Siberia” natural gas pipeline will gradually increase to about 21 billion cubic meters in 2023, with the goal of 15 billion to 16 billion cubic meters LNG plant this year.
Based on the above assumptions, and taking into account the annual supply of about 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the former Soviet Union countries, Russia can deliver about 45 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the European market, which is equivalent to 123 million cubic meters per day. Russia currently exports about 80 million cubic meters of natural gas to Europe every day.
However, these figures may change as Rosneft makes the final supply decision based on market conditions, customer requirements, geopolitics and other factors.
Russia expects a slight increase in crude oil exports, although Europe has stopped most of its purchases from the country. According to the draft, Russia will export 250 million tons of crude oil next year, higher than 243 million tons this year. In 2024 and 2025, it will export 255 million tons and 260 million tons respectively.
However, according to the draft, the export volume of petroleum products in 2023 is expected to drop from 130 million tons this year to 113 million tons.




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Post time: Sep-26-2022